tennessee storm chaser
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think a moderate risk area is now out of the question.... begin to wonder...
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It's just one run & one model. I suggest waiting for some more consistency and agreement before jumping off the cliff
Is there potential for junk convection to decrease the risk for eastern portions of Dixie? It looks like CIN is pretty low while the LLJ is belting in the moisture.
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rolltide_130
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It's just one run & one model. I suggest waiting for some more consistency and agreement before jumping off the cliff
Is there potential for junk convection to decrease the risk for eastern portions of Dixie? It looks like CIN is pretty low while the LLJ is belting in the moisture.
Junk convection chances look low.. the NAM really has just been odd this morning. I think it's a bad run for now.
wow the nam looks so confused..if the 12z euro comes in different, then it might be on to something
Kory
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GFS holds serve. There is convection across the open warm sector later in the day Monday that would likely be at severe threshold.
NWMSGuy
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Wondering if the EURO will cave to the GFS.
Kory
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Rarely do you see a wholesale cave at this range. Usually a blend of the two is a safe bet.
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tennessee storm chaser
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Still think. Nam is still within its wacky stage hour ... now showing this 0z tonite. Maybe on to something
Kory
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UKMET is fast. Looks like it might be a touch further south with the trough base than the GFS.
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rolltide_130
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NAM is completely on its own. Euro is STRONGER if anything.. I think NAM was a bad run..
Kory
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Euro/UKMET are pretty much the same (not surprising as they pretty much share the same physics). It's a bit faster, but still is a sizable severe wx event.
The euro suggests a little more junk convection in the beginning in north Alabama. Kind of looks like an east to west boundary in a highly climatologically favored area for tornadoes.
Kory
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Euro is really getting some pretty good instability up into MS/AL and into TN.
CheeselandSkies
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Even with the less impressive 12Z NAM, 1KM EHIs are still around 1.5 in N. AL and that's at 06Z-09Z Tuesday morning. The biggest fly in the ointment I've been seeing on forecast soundings are the lapse rates, which are generally <6.5 degrees C/km at any level. Generally in cool season/overnight events you want very cold air aloft to make up for the relatively less surface moisture/diurnal heating to get them to pan out.
Kory
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There's some pretty solid low level moisture advection across all models (upper 60s to near 70 degree dew points). I don't think that will be too much of an issue.
