Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 11/5-11/7

[stormcentral]

Southeast TN watching...CLOSELY
-Storm Central Weather KCHA

 

[stormcentral]

 

[warneagle]

Yeah the 18z NAM is rough. A string of tornadic supercells crossing Arkansas and northern Louisiana. A bit slower with the system than the others but a very potent setup with the dynamics. Not taking it face value at this range but STP values were eye-opening.

 

[rolltide_130]

The one fly in the ointment, if there is one, is that the GFS seemed to hint at the potential for convection ongoing in the Gulf. (Yeah real shocking I know) I'm not sure how much of an impact that will have but it has a signal for that. It didn't seem like it was particularly impactful but that is a signal I picked up on when looking over the model suites today.

 

[Kory]

I don't see coastal convection being an issue. Unlike yesterday, there will be height rises over the Gulf. We had a lot of forcing very close to the Gulf that created a mass of convection down there.

 

[rolltide_130]

I don't see coastal convection being an issue. Unlike yesterday, there will be height rises over the Gulf. We had a lot of forcing very close to the Gulf that created a mass of convection down there.

I was on the fence about that. It also seemed like it was elevated and lighter convection. The GFS also seemed to mysteriously weaken the EML which.. considering the 500mb trough itself is STRENGTHENING which each run.. seems to defy logic.

 

[amp1998]

The one fly in the ointment, if there is one, is that the GFS seemed to hint at the potential for convection ongoing in the Gulf. (Yeah real shocking I know) I'm not sure how much of an impact that will have but it has a signal for that. It didn't seem like it was particularly impactful but that is a signal I picked up on when looking over the model suites today.

I don't buy it at this point.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Wondering which model is going to cave in regards to timing.

 

[gangstonc]

The one fly in the ointment, if there is one, is that the GFS seemed to hint at the potential for convection ongoing in the Gulf. (Yeah real shocking I know) I'm not sure how much of an impact that will have but it has a signal for that. It didn't seem like it was particularly impactful but that is a signal I picked up on when looking over the model suites today.

With such a large warm sector in place, it wouldn’t hamper things too much would it?

 

[Fred Gossage]

With such a large warm sector in place, it wouldn’t hamper things too much would it?

Like discussed above after he posted that, it's not even believable at all because the Gulf Coast and northern Gulf will be under shortwave ridging aloft with increasing mid-level heights. That would mean sinking air and there will probably also be capping.

 

[CAL]

I feel there needs to be more research on this coastal convection issue... much more. Honestly, I'm not sure we understand it that well as a meteorological community. Someone could do some really nice research on it for sure!

 

[Xenesthis]

Like discussed above after he posted that, it's not even believable at all because the Gulf Coast and northern Gulf will be under shortwave ridging aloft with increasing mid-level heights. That would mean sinking air and there will probably also be capping.

So basically there is literally nothing getting in the way of this?

 

[amp1998]

So basically there is literally nothing getting in the way of this?

Doesn't look like it. Honestly wouldnt be surprised to see a Day 3 MDT risk from the SPC.

 

[Xenesthis]

Doesn't look like it. Honestly wouldnt be surprised to see a Day 3 MDT risk from the SPC.

So translation.... High risk on its way somewhere

 

[Xenesthis]

Am I the only one here having a gut wrenching feeling about this?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Am I the only one here having a gut wrenching feeling about this?

Nope... I officially told my boss. No work for Monday. Chase day coming for us....

 

[stormcentral]

Point click soundings OMINOUS.
Supercell composite 9. STP 3.0
Target area around Chattanooga

 

[Xenesthis]

Mark my words this will go down in history for tornado outbreaks...

 

[Mike S]

I've removed a few posts. Please stay on topic.

 

[gangstonc]

Does anybody have a good temp and dew point map for Tuesday?