hail

One of the most interesting volcanic phenomena is volcanic thunderstorms. I'm not talking about regular volcanic lightning produced by dry ash plumes but actual wet deep convection produced by volcanic eruptions. They are usually associated with phreatomagmatic and surtseyan eruptions. Some...

There’s been a big increase in GFS ensembles showing a significant severe event long range. A look at the EURO control also shows significant severe.

I’m starting a thread for today’s severe weather threat. I figure it could be quite busy. Here is an interesting statement from the current Day 1 SPC outlook.

I figured an Enhanced Risk with a 10% hatched tornado area deserved a thread of its own, even if it’s a rather localized and conditional threat. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html (can’t post the images from my phone) There’s a still good bit of model spread on this. The...

We're less than a week away now and guidance points to an event with severe potential. There's a lot of details that need to be sorted out as some operational runs are depicting scenarios less favorable than it's ensembles suggest. We can detail the progress here as the event moves closer and...

While this doesn't look as potent as Saturday's system, a nonzero threat for severe weather exists tomorrow. While the CAD looks to hold strong in Central and East Alabama, places further south and west will have a warm sector that will be able to support organized surface based convection. In...

Just realized we don't have a thread for this one. Looks like things have been steadily uptrending so I figured I'd post one to organize the discussion.

Since the Euro is starting to hint at potentially a widespread severe weather outbreak for next week, I thought I'd get this thread going as well.. This is concerning.. the November 2002 outbreak similarities to how this system looks so far is uncanny..

Its officially spooky week, which also marks the unofficial beginning of the Dixie Alley cool severe weather season and we have certainly some spooky weather to track. A potent and, if current trends continue, potentially significant severe weather threat exists for MS, AL, and TN as early as...

A plane crashed in Durango, Mexico shortly after taking off. There were reports that the weather was bad at the time it took off: Obviously it's too early to speculate on a cause, but sounds like the weather may have been a factor. Thankfully the governor of the state of Durango said that...

Models amplify a trough Thursday through the weekend across the eastern US. The jet configuration is healthy being that it's broadly stretched, and abnormally strong for this time of the year. It will filter in cooler air aloft resulting in steep lapse rates, and a strongly unstable atmosphere...

This looks like a pretty significant southward/ eastward advancing MCS event with a multitude of damaging wind reports.

The dates may change, but the Euro is focusing in on a potential severe threat in the long range. Since there's been some consistency and much discussion, we can keep it focused on this thread.

A potentially dangerously active pattern during the month of April looks to get going with this upcoming system this week. While this currently doesn't look to be a higher end threat in itself (That comes with the next system..), this could potentially prime Dixie for the upcoming threats down...

We have another event shaping up for the Dixie alley region with a decent risk of high rainfall totals and a developing potential for severe weather. Looking at the rainfall totals and taking the least aggressive GFS op run for the day, we are looking at a good soak across a large swath of the...

A thread to discuss this year’s severe weather season.

Enhanced risk for parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio today. 10% TOR, 30% Wind, 30%+hatched Hail

On this date in 1977 a vicious F5 tornado struck the northwest side of Birmingham, Alabama killing 22 and injuring 130. The large tornado touched down four miles northwest of midtown Birmingham and moved northeast at 60 mph. Daniel Payne College was destroyed by the powerful tornado, but most...

I know that we're still 5 plus days out, but someone has to start a thread.... What are everyone's thoughts on the VERY late March 24 through March 25, 2017 event? Based on Helicity values, I'm thinking more a strong straight line wind event, maybe even some hail, but I just don't think, at...