Severe WX 2/20/2019 Severe Threat

[Kory]

While this doesn't look as potent as Saturday's system, a nonzero threat for severe weather exists tomorrow. While the CAD looks to hold strong in Central and East Alabama, places further south and west will have a warm sector that will be able to support organized surface based convection. In MS and SW AL, south of I-20/59, we may see a few isolated tornadoes and damaging winds. Places along I-20/59 and north of that will see the threat for some hailers with elevated convection with steeper mid-level lapse rates. The hail threat is contingent on more organized, supercellular storms being able to form and maintain themselves without converging into a line.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

This threat has been on the models for ages, and has been a growing threat. Mods, please pin this thread to the top. It deserves plenty of attention. Tornadoes look fairly possible overnight, and tomorrow across LA, MS, and AL. Thank you.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah definitely not a trivial threat. The HRRR brings the greatest tornado threat a bit further north than the NAM does but in both cases there’s certainly enough instability to get something going south of I-20. Both are giving sigtor values in the 1.5 range in southern MS/AL tomorrow evening. Definitely don’t want to sleep on this one.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Beautiful elevated supercell producing severe hail north of Birmingham.

 

[Kory]

Got a few hailers over in MS that will continue to progress NE into Alabama later this afternoon. Mesoanalysis shows lapse rates on the order of 6.5-7 C/KM. Updraft helicity streaks continue on long tracks into AL, so I suspect we'll be having SVR warnings later today for hail.

 

[WesL]

Getting ready for some more fun in Huntsville. Spotted a good bit of minor flooding this morning on the way in. Ditto Landing at the Tennessee River/Whitesburg Bridge on US HWY 231 already looks to be flooding as is.

 

[Kory]

That southern end is losing a lot of push. Where that stalls, there will be problems.

 

[Kory]

Some weak rotation with those storms in Southern MS.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Getting ready for some more fun in Huntsville. Spotted a good bit of minor flooding this morning on the way in. Ditto Landing at the Tennessee River/Whitesburg Bridge on US HWY 231 already looks to be flooding as is.

I live near Ditto and the river started rising before the rain even started. I read that TVA started releasing water last week in anticipation for this weeks rain. It’ll be interesting to see if it hurts or helps with the flooding.

 

[KoD]

I live near Ditto and the river started rising before the rain even started. I read that TVA started releasing water last week in anticipation for this weeks rain. It’ll be interesting to see if it hurts or helps with the flooding.

Indeed. I'm sure it'll make the flooding worse here and help upstream.
Current forecast for this area is ~19.24ft, and currently the trends are a bit higher than that.

21ft - Backwater causes flooding on Redstone Arsenal. Significant flooding is occurring on the Morgan County side of the river with hundreds of acres and several homes and roads flooded.

19ft - The entrance to the Ditto Landing area is underwater...along with much of the boat harbor. Several roads in northeastern Morgan County are underwater...and water is beginning to approach a home on River Loop Road in the Laceys Spring Community.

17ft - Lowland flooding begins. Some access roads in the area become flooded. Water backed into Long Pond Slough begins to approach roads on the Morgan County side of the river.

14ft - The river starts to cover ramps at the Madison County Boat Harbor at Ditto Landing...as well as pastureland near the river. Backwater from Aldridge Creek covers part of the Ditto Landing Walking Trail. Water backs into sloughs near the river.

 

[Kory]

Crazy heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning in Tuscaloosa.

 

[Kory]

We’re going under here in Tuscaloosa. Need a flash flood warning ASAP.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Indeed. I'm sure it'll make the flooding worse here and help upstream.
Current forecast for this area is ~19.24ft, and currently the trends are a bit higher than that.

21ft - Backwater causes flooding on Redstone Arsenal. Significant flooding is occurring on the Morgan County side of the river with hundreds of acres and several homes and roads flooded.

19ft - The entrance to the Ditto Landing area is underwater...along with much of the boat harbor. Several roads in northeastern Morgan County are underwater...and water is beginning to approach a home on River Loop Road in the Laceys Spring Community.

17ft - Lowland flooding begins. Some access roads in the area become flooded. Water backed into Long Pond Slough begins to approach roads on the Morgan County side of the river.

14ft - The river starts to cover ramps at the Madison County Boat Harbor at Ditto Landing...as well as pastureland near the river. Backwater from Aldridge Creek covers part of the Ditto Landing Walking Trail. Water backs into sloughs near the river.

My gauge has always been how close the water gets to flooding Hobbs Island road. The Christmas flood a couple years ago is the closest I’ve ever seen. Morgan county side always gets the worst of it.

 

[Kory]

 

[Kory]

If my car gets water damage AGAIN after last July....