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  1. Taylor Campbell

    Severe Weather Threat - November 3rd-6th, 2022

    A significant severe weather threat with all modes of severe over a large area looks likely across the central and southern Plains Thursday-Friday. The operational trends have been towards a more favorable setup and the ensemble support has largely grown in favor of the heightened threat.
  2. JayF

    Severe WX Enhanced Weather Threat Alabama, Florida and Georgia 15 Feb 2021

    Stay Weather aware in the Slight and Enhanced areas.
  3. rolltide_130

    Severe WX 1/24/21-1/26/21 Severe Event (Fultondale, AL)

    The Euro is starting to come around and get pretty gnarly for next week's severe event from the Arklatex eastward into Dixie. I initially had some concerns that the ridge was going to get too pumped up for this system to effectively translate east, but as of the last couple of runs that concern...
  4. Kory

    2/10/2020-2/12/2020 Severe Weather and Flooding Threat

    Things kick off tomorrow with some storms riding the warm front/boundary from the convection over North MS/AL. May have a few surprises per the RAP and HRRR. The next round of severe weather comes Wednesday as a shortwave kicks out of Texas. Some potential flies in the ointment limiting...
  5. warneagle

    Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

    12z GFS held serve. Monday (5/20) and Wednesday (5/22) look downright violent. Yikes. Thursday (5/23) and Sunday (5/26) bear watching too. Still long range for now at least I guess.
  6. Darklordsuperstorm

    Severe WX Wednesday/Thursday/Friday April 17th-19th Severe Threat

    Still 8 days out but there appears this will be another potentially significant event. Lots of mets already sounding the alarm and even cancelling plans over this threat. Seems there is enough credibility to get a thread going for this. Let's see how this one develops.
  7. KoD

    Severe WX Severe Weather Event April 13-14, 2019

    We're less than a week away now and guidance points to an event with severe potential. There's a lot of details that need to be sorted out as some operational runs are depicting scenarios less favorable than it's ensembles suggest. We can detail the progress here as the event moves closer and...
  8. KoD

    Post Analysis - 3/9/19

    I think it would be beneficial to everyone to reflect on each potential weather scenario and discuss what went right and what went wrong with the forecast and predictions. Hopefully we can get a trend of post-event analysis threads going and the wiser Mets can help us amateurs understand how...
  9. Kory

    Severe WX 2/20/2019 Severe Threat

    While this doesn't look as potent as Saturday's system, a nonzero threat for severe weather exists tomorrow. While the CAD looks to hold strong in Central and East Alabama, places further south and west will have a warm sector that will be able to support organized surface based convection. In...
  10. X

    Severe WX Severe Risk 2/23-2/24

    I figured I would get this started.
  11. rolltide_130

    Severe WX Severe Threat 12/31

    Just realized we don't have a thread for this one. Looks like things have been steadily uptrending so I figured I'd post one to organize the discussion.
  12. rolltide_130

    Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 11/5-11/7

    Since the Euro is starting to hint at potentially a widespread severe weather outbreak for next week, I thought I'd get this thread going as well.. This is concerning.. the November 2002 outbreak similarities to how this system looks so far is uncanny..
  13. rolltide_130

    Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 10/31-11/2

    Its officially spooky week, which also marks the unofficial beginning of the Dixie Alley cool severe weather season and we have certainly some spooky weather to track. A potent and, if current trends continue, potentially significant severe weather threat exists for MS, AL, and TN as early as...
  14. rolltide_130

    Severe Potential 6/22-6/23

    Didn't think I'd be making one of these in late June, but 2018 has pretty much thrown climatology out the window so why not. A rather unusual system for this time of year will be making its way across the south, with a cutoff low over IL/IN and a trough with some impressive upper level flow...
  15. KoD

    Severe WX April 12-15th, 2018 Severe Potential

    The dates may change, but the Euro is focusing in on a potential severe threat in the long range. Since there's been some consistency and much discussion, we can keep it focused on this thread.
  16. rolltide_130

    Archive Severe Potential 4/3-4/4

    A potentially dangerously active pattern during the month of April looks to get going with this upcoming system this week. While this currently doesn't look to be a higher end threat in itself (That comes with the next system..), this could potentially prime Dixie for the upcoming threats down...
  17. KoD

    Severe WX March 27-30th, 2018 - Localized Flooding/Slight Severe Potential

    We have another event shaping up for the Dixie alley region with a decent risk of high rainfall totals and a developing potential for severe weather. Looking at the rainfall totals and taking the least aggressive GFS op run for the day, we are looking at a good soak across a large swath of the...
  18. Kory

    March 2018 Discussion

    Cautiously watching those severe warned storms over in East and Central MS moving ESE. I always find right movers produce some big hail.
  19. rolltide_130

    Flooding and Isolated Severe Potential 3/1-3/2

    Looks like another trough will be sweeping through the eastern U.S this week. It looked pretty potent from a severe threat a few days ago, but as time has gone by the severe potential has taken a back seat to what could be a VERY nasty flooding event, especially over the TN Valley region of...
  20. rolltide_130

    Severe potential 2/23-2/25

    It is looking increasingly likely that areas of the Mississippi Valley will be faced with a significant severe weather threat this coming weekend.. At the surface, a shortwave trough that has increasingly become more amplified with each passing run will dig in and kick across the eastern 3rd of...