severe

12z GFS held serve. Monday (5/20) and Wednesday (5/22) look downright violent. Yikes. Thursday (5/23) and Sunday (5/26) bear watching too. Still long range for now at least I guess.

Still 8 days out but there appears this will be another potentially significant event. Lots of mets already sounding the alarm and even cancelling plans over this threat. Seems there is enough credibility to get a thread going for this. Let's see how this one develops.

We're less than a week away now and guidance points to an event with severe potential. There's a lot of details that need to be sorted out as some operational runs are depicting scenarios less favorable than it's ensembles suggest. We can detail the progress here as the event moves closer and...

I think it would be beneficial to everyone to reflect on each potential weather scenario and discuss what went right and what went wrong with the forecast and predictions. Hopefully we can get a trend of post-event analysis threads going and the wiser Mets can help us amateurs understand how...

While this doesn't look as potent as Saturday's system, a nonzero threat for severe weather exists tomorrow. While the CAD looks to hold strong in Central and East Alabama, places further south and west will have a warm sector that will be able to support organized surface based convection. In...

I figured I would get this started.

Just realized we don't have a thread for this one. Looks like things have been steadily uptrending so I figured I'd post one to organize the discussion.

Since the Euro is starting to hint at potentially a widespread severe weather outbreak for next week, I thought I'd get this thread going as well.. This is concerning.. the November 2002 outbreak similarities to how this system looks so far is uncanny..

Its officially spooky week, which also marks the unofficial beginning of the Dixie Alley cool severe weather season and we have certainly some spooky weather to track. A potent and, if current trends continue, potentially significant severe weather threat exists for MS, AL, and TN as early as...

Didn't think I'd be making one of these in late June, but 2018 has pretty much thrown climatology out the window so why not. A rather unusual system for this time of year will be making its way across the south, with a cutoff low over IL/IN and a trough with some impressive upper level flow...

The dates may change, but the Euro is focusing in on a potential severe threat in the long range. Since there's been some consistency and much discussion, we can keep it focused on this thread.

A potentially dangerously active pattern during the month of April looks to get going with this upcoming system this week. While this currently doesn't look to be a higher end threat in itself (That comes with the next system..), this could potentially prime Dixie for the upcoming threats down...

We have another event shaping up for the Dixie alley region with a decent risk of high rainfall totals and a developing potential for severe weather. Looking at the rainfall totals and taking the least aggressive GFS op run for the day, we are looking at a good soak across a large swath of the...

Cautiously watching those severe warned storms over in East and Central MS moving ESE. I always find right movers produce some big hail.

Looks like another trough will be sweeping through the eastern U.S this week. It looked pretty potent from a severe threat a few days ago, but as time has gone by the severe potential has taken a back seat to what could be a VERY nasty flooding event, especially over the TN Valley region of...

It is looking increasingly likely that areas of the Mississippi Valley will be faced with a significant severe weather threat this coming weekend.. At the surface, a shortwave trough that has increasingly become more amplified with each passing run will dig in and kick across the eastern 3rd of...

Yikes.. we definitely need a thread for this one. Potential significant risk for areas South o I-20 tomorrow.. will post more detailed analysis once I'm on a computer.

Enhanced risk for parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio today. 10% TOR, 30% Wind, 30%+hatched Hail

It appears we have another taste of summer in store for most of us in the south east. Current forecasts show temperatures in the 70s for the next several days then after about a week, more cold fronts will slide in from the NW bringing us back to where we were in late October. November is...