Severe WX Wednesday/Thursday/Friday April 17th-19th Severe Threat (1 Viewer)


Messages
336
Location
jackson tennessee
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
Still 8 days out but there appears this will be another potentially significant event. Lots of mets already sounding the alarm and even cancelling plans over this threat. Seems there is enough credibility to get a thread going for this. Let's see how this one develops.
Well spoken... 100 percent agree with you ... according today’s run verbatim
 

Fred Gossage

Member
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
118
Location
Florence, AL
Uh oh. Wednesday event. This one has been showing up more consistently since last week than this weekend’s threats. ‘Tis the season.
Yep. I legitimately think the weekend one is a localized higher-end event focused on MS/AL/TN/west GA. However, while still a lot of time for changes and uncertainty abound, the one at the middle of next week, out of the two, has the better chance of being a large-scale higher-end threat. The overall signal for it has actually been in the CFS severe weather dashboard for over a month, and has been one of the days so far with the strongest signal on that dashboard out of the entire year.
 

andyhb

Member
Messages
67
Location
Norman, OK
There are some issues with under-dispersion in the GEFS generally, but this is one ugly looking mean for being over a week out (loop from 144 to 240 hrs on the 18z run). Synoptically, there are a number of cards on the table here for a potential red letter event somewhere, but a lot of things can make or break that on the smaller scale.

eb38c7a7-16cc-4e15-bd65-94f861820498.gif
 
Messages
398
Location
Niagara Falls, Ontario
That is one honking long wave trough on the Euro there next Wed-Thurs. Just that alone and the fact that the Sat-Sun system doesn't do a lot to suppress moisture is enough for me to be concerned about this one. It's a historically favorable setup for something big.
This is definitely the first one in a while that's had me concerned. GFS has a pretty nasty look as well.
 

andyhb

Member
Messages
67
Location
Norman, OK
Won't get too much into the details since they will change, but the 00z Euro would probably be a major severe event from LA and AR east to the Carolinas Wed-Thurs with some truly incredible dynamics coming into play, especially Thursday. Plenty of moisture/instability available as well.
 

Fred Gossage

Member
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
118
Location
Florence, AL
Yeah, not to take anything away from the first one at all (especially once you account for models handling boundary layer overnight and such), but good grief at that one mid next week. And it wasn't just the Euro. 00Z GFS looked just like the Euro synoptically, just 12 hours slower in placement.
 
Messages
336
Location
jackson tennessee
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
According to their graphic, Day 8 would be 12Z Wednesday-12Z Thursday, so that should be the period of interest.
Yeah I could be wrong... but models keep this insane ominous look today... tomorrrows 4 to 8 day should start to get attention for mid week system next week... spc going have their hands full over next week or so... especially with this one this weekend looking like a moderate risk for sure... and later with next system ... could be even more dangerous ...
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 1)

Top