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Severe WX Wednesday/Thursday/Friday April 17th-19th Severe Threat (1 Viewer)


Xenesthis

Member
Messages
249
Location
McMinnville TN
I would say a little more than run of the mill. Super Outbreaks by nature will be exceptionally rare and to have two in less than ten years is exceedingly unlikely. Never say never when it comes to the atmosphere, though. Something on the caliber of Super Tuesday 2008, Veterans Day 2002, 4/24/2010, 3/2/2012 or 4/28/2014 would be plenty bad enough.
This is the high end potential. Possible but the higher threshold!
 

Xenesthis

Member
Messages
249
Location
McMinnville TN
My point exactly. You don't need a Super Outbreak to have a really bad tornado outbreak, like any of the events I listed. 4/3/74 and 4/27/11 are extreme outliers as far as tornado events go. It was apparent for quite a while that 4/27 would be a bad day, but just how bad wasn't clear probably until the morning of.
Not in disagreement here... I just thinking throwing out these extremes is kinda pointless since even if this storm preforms on the higher end of things it will not compare to those two
 

Xenesthis

Member
Messages
249
Location
McMinnville TN
12z Euro shows we have a long way to go before we know what will happen. Major upstream changes in the pattern.
Exactly way to early to be speculating on the extent and severity. I am not saying it couldn’t be significant but the 74 and 2011 outbreaks don’t even need to be in this discussion
 
Messages
346
Location
jackson tennessee
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
While I certainly don't think this event will end up in the ballpark of the those two generational outbreaks, the synoptic setup screams that this is an event with a high ceiling.
And to be honest with you... this point being week out... that’s a scary thing ... if models can hold serve going into this weekend... then we have to be prepared for a high ceiling event for sure...course we got hands full enough for this system coming this weekend already
 
Messages
44
Location
Flowery Branch, GA
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer, ARRL Member
HAM Callsign
KM4JKH
Exactly my point 40 years apart! Last one was 2011... 8 years ago
I was just playing with you. I never like to compare an upcoming event to either of those two (at least not publicly). Those were so extreme, that it's a good bet you won't see one again in your lifetime. We're in agreement.
 

RollTide18

Member
Messages
50
Location
Montgomery, AL
My point exactly. You don't need a Super Outbreak to have a really bad tornado outbreak, like any of the events I listed. 4/3/74 and 4/27/11 are extreme outliers as far as tornado events go. It was apparent for quite a while that 4/27 would be a bad day, but just how bad wasn't clear probably until the morning of.
This is true. When you look back at the 2011 season, the 4/15/11 outbreak alone was bad and we would’ve been talking about that event a lot more if not for what happened two weeks later. Super Outbreaks are rare yes, but Tornado Outbreaks are very common.
 

Equus

Member
Messages
1,239
Location
Saragossa, AL
If nothing else I guess the generational outbreaks serve as decent top-end benchmarks... we could state that a volatile setup could be "in the range of 4/15/11 but well below 4/27/11" parameter wise, as a lotta newcomers probably aren't very familiar with many other outbreaks besides 4/27 or whatever recent event damaged their hometown. Goes without saying that few outbreaks any decade soon should come close to rivaling 4/27, but we really can't be 100% sure in this science
 

JayF

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Hartselle, al
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I like the way James Spann puts it when he talks about the comparison to April 27 2011. If your home or your neighborhood is victim to a tornado, that is your April 27th 2011.

Everyone thinks about it and compares it to that date, because that is the day many people were killed in Alabama and in the South East and it is the most recent Tornado Outbreak in the state and the country. Their were 216 Tornadoes on that day according to Wikipedia. 62 of those in the state of Alabama. Over 3000 people were injured. People are scared because of what occurred that day. Any time you have the media, meteorologist, enthusiasts and people who think they understand how to forecast weather talk about how bad weather will be on a certain day, it causes people to pay attention.

It isn't going to stop people from comparing it to a devastating day most people have witnessed for themselves. The word has to get out about the possibilities for storms and that we as a group help spread that word because I would rather people pay attention and nothing happen than to have people not pay attention and something happen where people get injured or killed.

We can all get complacent. However it is important to let people know that it is OK to be frightened, but inform them that they need to stay aware, and if they are really really scared, point them to a community storm shelter where they can stay during the storms so they can feel safe. Most importantly comfort them. Show them the good works the communities did after the storms to help rebuild lives, homes and communities.

Weather can be a beast and sometimes our lives can be devastated by it. Life continues on, we must rebuild and help each other rebuild and heal. It cannot be done alone.

My hope is that people pay attention and stay aware no matter what happens and that lives are saved.

Oh and if you do not have a weather radio, you need one. Not just for these upcoming storms, but for always.
 
Messages
399
Location
Niagara Falls, Ontario
Yeah the odds of this turning out to be a super outbreak are extremely slim even at this point and there is still s huge amount of time for it to trend down. Super outbreaks depending on your definition seem to happen about once in 15 to once in 40 years.

There's also a large gap between "garden variety outbreak" and "super outbreak". 3/1/07, 2/5-6/08, 4/10/09, 4/24/10, 4/15-16/11, 3/2/12, 4/28/14 and so on were all high-end events but nowhere near super outbreak status. When we talk about next Wednesday having a high ceiling we mean more along the lines of those days and less like 4/3/74 or 4/27/11. Those were freak events by any standard.

Semi-related, but since there's no definition of a super outbreak anyway, it really is a pretty random description. How do we define "super outbreak" anyway? More than 100 tornadoes in 24 hours? Then it could be possible to have a "super outbreak" of only weak tornadoes. Double digit numbers of violent tornadoes? Do we count 3/21/52, Palm Sunday 1965, and 5/31/85 as "super outbreaks" then? More than one F5/EF5 tornado on the same day? Do we found 3/13/90 then? It's not an easy thing to define.
 
Messages
190
Location
Canton, GA
If nothing else I guess the generational outbreaks serve as decent top-end benchmarks... we could state that a volatile setup could be "in the range of 4/15/11 but well below 4/27/11" parameter wise, as a lotta newcomers probably aren't very familiar with many other outbreaks besides 4/27 or whatever recent event damaged their hometown. Goes without saying that few outbreaks any decade soon should come close to rivaling 4/27, but we really can't be 100% sure in this science
It's interesting to note that April 27, 2011 and April 15, 2011 were the two largest tornado outbreaks in Alabama state history. They occurred 12 days apart. April 28/29, 2014 comes in at #4.
 

Weatherphreak

Member
Messages
90
Location
Huntsville
I said Super Outbreak because I didn’t specifically want to say 4/27 or 4/3. Didn’t mean to stir the pot. I’m still learning how to read models and more than anything wanted to see how the parameters were matched up comparatively. Thanks for all the good info.
 

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