Severe WX Wednesday/Thursday/Friday April 17th-19th Severe Threat

[MichelleH]

It's interesting to note that April 27, 2011 and April 15, 2011 were the two largest tornado outbreaks in Alabama state history. They occurred 12 days apart. April 28/29, 2014 comes in at #4.

Curious what number the March 21, 1932 outbreak comes in at. My grandmother was 2 years old when that happened and it warped their house. She then went on to live through 4/3/74 and 4/27/11. She hated tornadoes. LOL

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Curious what number the March 21, 1932 outbreak comes in at. My grandmother was 2 years old when that happened and it warped their house. She then went on to live through 4/3/74 and 4/27/11. She hated tornadoes. LOL

I'm pretty sure there were 15 tornadoes reported that day. Unfortunately, NWS BMX only published the top 11 events (12 are listed due to a tie for 11th place), which ends at 18 total tornadoes. I'm sure there were quite a few more tornadoes on 3/21/1932, however. Probably enough to vault that event into the top 5.

 

[SilentShadow87]

I think Super Outbreak is pretty well understood to only refer to the 1974 and 2011 events.

I've heard 3/21/32 and 3/21/52 being called super outbreaks occasionally too.

 

[Kory]

I don’t think next week is a slam dunk. A lot of things will hinge on the evolution of the Atlantic once Sunday’s system lifts out. Models still struggling with that as shown by some of the changes on today’s models.

 

[jmills]

I don’t think next week is a slam dunk. A lot of things will hinge on the evolution of the Atlantic once Sunday’s system lifts out. Models still struggling with that as shown by some of the changes on today’s models.

Absolutely. Generally nothing 7+ days is ever a slam dunk.

 

[Equus]

I think I honestly would put Palm Sunday 1965 (and probably the Enigma Outbreak of 1884) into the same bracket as the Super Outbreaks; though perhaps on the lower end, both were extremely high end events with tornado counts probably much higher than we think... but am getting off topic though (really wish the Significant Tornado Events thread was revived again)

Either way am glued to model runs and radars. We haven't really had a significant widespread event here since 4/28/14 (Beauregard notwithstanding)

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Awfully quiet in here for awhile now...I take it this means yesterday's EUROs backed off considerably on this threat?

 

[amp1998]

Awfully quiet in here for awhile now...I take it this means yesterday's EUROs backed off considerably on this threat?

No, thinking really hasn't changed much.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Yeah, there is still a sizable and significant severe weather threat shown.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

So we're just watching and waiting to get through the weekend?

 

[NorthGaWeather]

So we're just watching and waiting to get through the weekend?

More than likely. I feel like threads on severe weather threats 6+ days out are always kind of slow until we get within day 3/4.

 

[Kory]

Trying to potentially get through this weekend's severe event. Has the severe weather threat went away? No, but we're still fine tuning the overall synoptic scale stuff which hinges a lot on how Sunday's system lifts out.

Overnight Euro was another nocturnal into morning event for Dixie. GFS is a little slower. Both showing a substantial threat still.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Holy Batman... look at the cape for this system .... appears to be sneaking little more north with it also on this system

 

[amp1998]

I see the 12z GFS gets a little busy in this time frame. Wow.

 

[Kory]

Multi-day, widespread event per the GFS.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Multi-day, widespread event per the GFS.

Yep looks to be potential for a doozy also

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Another potential Wednesday high ceiling event shaping up? Stay tuned

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

And the 12z euro not backing down next week ... serious outbreak per verbatim. Break details down bit

 

[Richardjacks]

Wow at next week. I think there will be some adjustments after this weekend's closed low...even the timing on that one has been varying a bit.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Wow at next week. I think there will be some adjustments after this weekend's closed low...even the timing on that one has been varying a bit.

Yeah. Per verbatim that’s plain n nasty run Richard