Severe WX Wednesday/Thursday/Friday April 17th-19th Severe Threat

[Timhsv]

Does the 00Z EC seem a little slower progression?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Does the 00Z EC seem a little slower progression?

Yea. It does... bit. To my untrained eyes

 

[Timhsv]

Yea. It does... bit. To my untrained eyes

Yea, I think we both have good eyes. Which will only make it an even more ominous setup then..

 

[Equus]

I'm flying out next Thursday morning... not entirely sure at this point said flight will happen heh. Scary stuff

 

[Kory]

I'm flying out next Thursday morning... not entirely sure at this point said flight will happen heh. Scary stuff

I have a buddy coming in for business/A-Day tomorrow and flying out Sunday morning. Told him it’s gonna be stormy. His response, “Okay, I’ll bring a rain jacket.”

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I have a buddy coming in for business/A-Day tomorrow and flying out Sunday morning. Told him it’s gonna be stormy. His response, “Okay, I’ll bring a rain jacket.”

Lol

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

12z gfs still holds serve on a significant severe outbreak mid next week ... ark tn ms ala...

 

[Weatherphreak]

I’ll be that guy and ask. How would overall potential at this point compare to a Super Outbreak situation? I know that’s impossible to answer accurately today but it sounds like people smarter than me are already sounding the alarms.

 

[andyhb]

I’ll be that guy and ask. How would overall potential at this point compare to a Super Outbreak situation? I know that’s impossible to answer accurately today but it sounds like people smarter than me are already sounding the alarms.

Sounding some alarms yes. Comparing it to historic outbreaks, no. Way, way too many variables to consider at this point that could mitigate this.

 

[Kory]

Yep, 12z GEFS members don't all agree on timing/strength and positioning of the trough. There are a few big hitters, but then there are a few weaker members. A lot can change in 7-8 days. But the fact that major guidance is pointing to something significant lends credence to probably a system we should pay very close attention too.

Plus, super outbreaks are heavily determined by mesoscale influences. Can make or break big events.

 

[Weatherphreak]

I hate even bringing the “Super Outbreak” question up but the reactions I’ve read seemed a little more than your garden variety spring severe weather systems.

 

[Xenesthis]

I hate even bringing the “Super Outbreak” question up but the reactions I’ve read seemed a little more than your garden variety spring severe weather systems.

This will be nothing like that! That type of event is a generational event. This will be just a run-of-the-mill spring time severe weather system

 

[GA Stormchaser]

This will be nothing like that! That type of event is a generational event. This will be just a run-of-the-mill spring time severe weather system

I've experienced TWO Generational events however........ April 3, 74 and Aprl 27, 2011. just had to say...

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I would say a little more than run of the mill. Super Outbreaks by nature will be exceptionally rare and to have two in less than ten years is exceedingly unlikely. Never say never when it comes to the atmosphere, though. Something on the caliber of Super Tuesday 2008, Veterans Day 2002, 4/24/2010, 3/2/2012 or 4/28/2014 would be plenty bad enough.

 

[Mike S]

I've experienced TWO Generational events however........ April 3, 74 and Aprl 27, 2011. just had to say...

The two events just happened to be a generation apart!

 

[Equus]

I've experienced TWO Generational events however........ April 3, 74 and Aprl 27, 2011. just had to say...

There are surely multiple people alive who went through 1932, 1974, and 2011; just because an event is extremely rare and usually only statistically happens about every 40 years doesn't mean it can't happen literally the following month... highly unlikely, but certainly within the realm of possibility

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

This will be nothing like that! That type of event is a generational event. This will be just a run-of-the-mill spring time severe weather system

This point show s no indication what so ever of being a run mill event ... this by verbatim is a significant to major outbreak ... as now... course details will change ... but something tells me this will be the bigger event of the two systems showing

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

This point show s no indication what so ever of being a run mill event ... this by verbatim is a significant to major outbreak ... as now... course details will change ... but something tells me this will be the bigger event of the two systems showing

exactly... Mother Nature and we know who else is the main one control... don’t go by time n generations ... this event has great potential to be big one

 

[CheeselandSkies]

exactly... Mother Nature and we know who else is the main one control... don’t go by time n generations ... this event has great potential to be big one

My point exactly. You don't need a Super Outbreak to have a really bad tornado outbreak, like any of the events I listed. 4/3/74 and 4/27/11 are extreme outliers as far as tornado events go. It was apparent for quite a while that 4/27 would be a bad day, but just how bad wasn't clear probably until the morning of.

 

[Xenesthis]

I've experienced TWO Generational events however........ April 3, 74 and Aprl 27, 2011. just had to say...

Exactly my point 40 years apart! Last one was 2011... 8 years ago