Flooding and Isolated Severe Potential 3/1-3/2

[rolltide_130]

Looks like another trough will be sweeping through the eastern U.S this week. It looked pretty potent from a severe threat a few days ago, but as time has gone by the severe potential has taken a back seat to what could be a VERY nasty flooding event, especially over the TN Valley region of Alabama.. we could have a band set up that could bring 6 inches over a 24 hour period, with most of it coming Wednesday night into Thursday..

 

[Mike S]

Brad Travis posted RPM data on Twitter, showing some spots up to 6"

 

[WesL]

I checked a few of the creeks on Wheeler Wildlife Refuge this afternoon and the water is already up in most areas so it won't take much many of the bridges and roads in the area that are prone to flooding. Stay safe everyone.

 

[MichelleH]

Severe thunderstorm warning for Marion County, AL until 2:45 pm


Sent from my iPhone using TalkWeather

ETA: Now Marion and Lamar until 3:30

 

[MichelleH]

SPC needs to be keeping an eye on NW Alabama...

 

[MichelleH]

New thunderstorm warning for Winston County, AL until 3:45 pm. BHM NWS said some storms are producing *some* rotation and they're keeping a close eye on it.

BTW, where is everyone? LOL

 

[rolltide_130]

Deep layer shear is excellent. I don't think it has it in the low levels to actually go tornadic though. Sfc winds are too veered and SRH is unimpressive.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

SPC needs to be keeping an eye on NW Alabama...

No kidding. Current mesoanalysis suggest an environment for supercells. The storm mode is great too. A few of them are showing rotation.

 

[Bama Ravens]

They have been trying to get spinning, but rotation has been weak and broad so far.

 

[akt1985]

Is it fair to say the axis of heavy rain is just inside the Tennessee state line or will metro Huntsville eventually get some of this heavy rain?

 

[Bama Ravens]

All of the severe thunderstorm warnings have expired.

 

[MichelleH]

From Spann on FB - Another look at the wall cloud with the storm at Jasper… no evidence of a tornado; no warnings are in effect.

 

[rolltide_130]

Is it fair to say the axis of heavy rain is just inside the Tennessee state line or will metro Huntsville eventually get some of this heavy rain?

Everyone will receive at least some heavy rain. Still too early to tell where the training band is going to set up however.

 

[rolltide_130]

We're seeing a band set up right along the I-565 corridor in North AL. This may get hairy..

 

[rolltide_130]

We were adequate low level shear away from being completely blindsided in NW Alabama today.. that could have been a complete disaster so we are lucky that didn't occur..

 

[Bama Ravens]

We were adequate low level shear away from being completely blindsided in NW Alabama today.. that could have been a complete disaster so we are lucky that didn't occur..

Yeah, not even a mention of a severe wx threat by anyone yesterday until the storms started forming. I know if was a low end threat that didn't last long, but I am surprised that no one even had an idea that we could have some severe storms yesterday.

 

[Bama Ravens]

This is one of the pictures Spann shared from yesterday. You could tell me this was a picture from Alabama on 4/27/11 and, if I didn't know any better, I would believe you.

Also, this video from yesterday in Marion County is impressive:

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like despite the vigorously rotating wall cloud being halfway or more to the ground from ambient cloud base, any ground contact was much smaller/brief (i.e. in the picture, what looks like a wedge tornado actually stops at or just below the obscuring tree line). Still, as rolltide130 pointed out, that could have been a lot worse for as unexpected as it was.

I've seen much many a higher-probability situation from SPC (slight or even enhanced risk, red box in effect) not even produce low-level rotating wall clouds that impressive, let alone touchdowns.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

That’s amazing! Discrete storm mode for the win.