Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

[warneagle]

12z GFS held serve. Monday (5/20) and Wednesday (5/22) look downright violent. Yikes. Thursday (5/23) and Sunday (5/26) bear watching too. Still long range for now at least I guess.

 

[Equus]

A week from today looks horrifying for classic tornado alley. Could potentially be an historic outbreak sequence IF things don't trend downwards (as they tend to) and extreme parameters produce all the high-ceiling results they're capable of. Always a monkey wrench to throw in the mix somewhere

 

[kivey2969]

Could these systems potentially affect the mid or deep south? If so, what areas? I know a lot could change. Just curious.

 

[TXTornado]

Could these systems potentially affect the mid or deep south? If so, what areas? I know a lot could change. Just curious.

Don't believe so.

 

[warneagle]

Severe probs on the entire day 4-8 outlook (and there will probably be some for the next few days after that too).

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Don't believe so.

Actually spc has parts mid south in day 6 risk this morning including parts western Tennessee... haven’t dug into much lately ... but may start to again ...

 

[Equus]

This is confirmed to be the first time ever that all five days on the SPC D4-8 outlook have been highlighted with a severe risk. The outlook even says that a risk goes even beyond the Day 8 period. Wild stuff.

 

[warneagle]

It could very well go all the way through next weekend. If it verifies this is gonna be a May 2003/May 2004 type of sequence (various dates from those months have been popping up as analogs).

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

It could very well go all the way through next weekend. If it verifies this is gonna be a May 2003/May 2004 type of sequence (various dates from those months have been popping up as analogs).

It could very well go all the way through next weekend. If it verifies this is gonna be a May 2003/May 2004 type of sequence (various dates from those months have been popping up as analogs).

Could these systems potentially affect the mid or deep south? If so, what areas? I know a lot could change. Just curious.

May 4th 2003 we got hit good with a ef4 12 fatalities here... it was a crazy 2 solid weeks of severe wx

 

[DaveFromGA]

It sure looks like it is going to be a crazy week or two starting this Friday

https://www.severeweatheroutlook.com/everything/

 

[JayF]

Next week: The Extended Range Tornado Forecast, a product from Northern Illinois University, shows that areas in RED will see a more active tornado risk compared to normal for next week. Not all areas in red will see a tornado, but that the conditions projected to be in place will lead to higher confidence of severe weather. Stay tuned. Next week looks active.

https://www.facebook.com/NorthCentralStormChasers/

 

[Argus]

It could very well go all the way through next weekend. If it verifies this is gonna be a May 2003/May 2004 type of sequence (various dates from those months have been popping up as analogs).

May 2003 affected multiple states on different days. It affected Georgia one day and Alabama the next.

 

[warneagle]

May 2003 affected multiple states on different days. It affected Georgia one day and Alabama the next.

The highest end threat is in the southern and central plains right now but it’s definitely possible that the mid-Mississippi valley and Hoosier Alley could be involved too

 

[TornadoFan]

In comes the 0Z GFS.

 

[TornadoFan]

From what I've been reading, I guess the models really backed off.

 

[warneagle]

From what I've been reading, I guess the models really backed off.

It doesn’t look like quite as high end of an event, especially later in the week, but Monday and Tuesday could both present pretty robust threats still. This Friday is also a lower-end but still potent setup.

 

[Equus]

Tomorrow seems a lot less potent than it did a few days ago, but undoubtedly at least a few tornadoes will occur. Classic medium range model downtrends

 

[TornadoFan]

Tomorrow's tornado risk has been upgraded to 10% with a hatched area.

 

[TornadoFan]

From the latest Day 2 update:

Potential exists for a significant severe event across a portion of
NE, and a moderate risk will be considered in day 1 updates.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah I could see something getting going near the surface low and along the warm front up there. I’ve seen a few people indicate on twitter that that northern zone would be their preferred chasing target.