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Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

warneagle

warneagle

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12z GFS held serve. Monday (5/20) and Wednesday (5/22) look downright violent. Yikes. Thursday (5/23) and Sunday (5/26) bear watching too. Still long range for now at least I guess.
 
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A week from today looks horrifying for classic tornado alley. Could potentially be an historic outbreak sequence IF things don't trend downwards (as they tend to) and extreme parameters produce all the high-ceiling results they're capable of. Always a monkey wrench to throw in the mix somewhere
 
Could these systems potentially affect the mid or deep south? If so, what areas? I know a lot could change. Just curious.
 
Severe probs on the entire day 4-8 outlook (and there will probably be some for the next few days after that too).
 
This is confirmed to be the first time ever that all five days on the SPC D4-8 outlook have been highlighted with a severe risk. The outlook even says that a risk goes even beyond the Day 8 period. Wild stuff.
 
It could very well go all the way through next weekend. If it verifies this is gonna be a May 2003/May 2004 type of sequence (various dates from those months have been popping up as analogs).
 
warneagle said:
It could very well go all the way through next weekend. If it verifies this is gonna be a May 2003/May 2004 type of sequence (various dates from those months have been popping up as analogs).
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warneagle said:
It could very well go all the way through next weekend. If it verifies this is gonna be a May 2003/May 2004 type of sequence (various dates from those months have been popping up as analogs).
Click to expand...
kivey2969 said:
Could these systems potentially affect the mid or deep south? If so, what areas? I know a lot could change. Just curious.
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May 4th 2003 we got hit good with a ef4 12 fatalities here... it was a crazy 2 solid weeks of severe wx
 
Next week: The Extended Range Tornado Forecast, a product from Northern Illinois University, shows that areas in RED will see a more active tornado risk compared to normal for next week. Not all areas in red will see a tornado, but that the conditions projected to be in place will lead to higher confidence of severe weather. Stay tuned. Next week looks active.

https://www.facebook.com/NorthCentralStormChasers/


60204289_2098034310497183_6540287150791852032_o.png
 
warneagle said:
It could very well go all the way through next weekend. If it verifies this is gonna be a May 2003/May 2004 type of sequence (various dates from those months have been popping up as analogs).
Click to expand...

May 2003 affected multiple states on different days. It affected Georgia one day and Alabama the next.
 
Argus said:
May 2003 affected multiple states on different days. It affected Georgia one day and Alabama the next.
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The highest end threat is in the southern and central plains right now but it’s definitely possible that the mid-Mississippi valley and Hoosier Alley could be involved too
 
TornadoFan said:
From what I've been reading, I guess the models really backed off.
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It doesn’t look like quite as high end of an event, especially later in the week, but Monday and Tuesday could both present pretty robust threats still. This Friday is also a lower-end but still potent setup.
 
Tomorrow seems a lot less potent than it did a few days ago, but undoubtedly at least a few tornadoes will occur. Classic medium range model downtrends
 
From the latest Day 2 update:

Potential exists for a significant severe event across a portion of
NE, and a moderate risk will be considered in day 1 updates.
 
Yeah I could see something getting going near the surface low and along the warm front up there. I’ve seen a few people indicate on twitter that that northern zone would be their preferred chasing target.
 
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