Severe Potential 6/22-6/23 (1 Viewer)


rolltide_130

Member
Messages
799
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
Didn't think I'd be making one of these in late June, but 2018 has pretty much thrown climatology out the window so why not.

A rather unusual system for this time of year will be making its way across the south, with a cutoff low over IL/IN and a trough with some impressive upper level flow values for June moving through Dixie.



There may be a tornado threat with this as well. Directional shear looks surprisingly good for this time of year and speed shear, while low, is in the range of values you would expect for a June severe setup. This may lend a chance to a brief, lower end tornado threat with any organized storms that can develop Friday afternoon and evening.

 

JayF

Technical Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
2020 Supporter
Technical Admin
Messages
945
Location
Hartselle, al
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
HAM Callsign
KB4JCS
I was looking at that as well. GFS has it slower coming through Saturday Morning.
 

KoD

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
2020 Supporter
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
972
Location
Huntsville, AL

Looks like we have a slight risk of double bananas tomorrow per the SPC. I wonder if the lapse rates will ripen more than what has been forecasted.
 

rolltide_130

Member
Messages
799
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
Not feeling this one like I was yesterday looking at new data. Looks like early/midday junk convection is likely. That will likely kill (or at least severely damper) the severe threat.

NAM is all in (as usual) but 3km NAM has a borderline non-event with just general thunder and maybe isolated marginal wind and hail reports. The general theme this year has been go with whatever could cause the event to downtrend, so I'm going to stick with that for now unless new data changes things.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
3,783
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
I think the biggest thing of note will be the MCS that looks like it will roll through between Friday evening/Saturday morning. This is a pretty classic set up for one...
 

JayF

Technical Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
2020 Supporter
Technical Admin
Messages
945
Location
Hartselle, al
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
HAM Callsign
KB4JCS
I love the statement in the Area Forecast Discussion:

"What happens Friday is anyone's guess at this point as model
consistency is slim to none."
 

Kory

Member
Messages
3,783
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Really hoping for a nice widespread rainfall in Tuscaloosa from this system. After a pretty wet May being capped off by Alberto, we've managed just under 1" through 3 weeks of June. Storms have missed us in all directions for the past week...
 

JayF

Technical Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
2020 Supporter
Technical Admin
Messages
945
Location
Hartselle, al
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
HAM Callsign
KB4JCS
Video of LIghtning I took last night.

 

WesL

Devil's Advocate
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
2020 Supporter
Messages
2,340
Location
Fayetteville, AR
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
Welcome to Madison County. Convinced our new minor league baseball team should be the N. Alabama Twisters.


upload_2018-6-22_12-57-40.png

 
  • Like
Reactions: KoD

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 1)

Top