• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Potential 6/22-6/23

rolltide_130

Member
Messages
828
Reaction score
378
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
Didn't think I'd be making one of these in late June, but 2018 has pretty much thrown climatology out the window so why not.

A rather unusual system for this time of year will be making its way across the south, with a cutoff low over IL/IN and a trough with some impressive upper level flow values for June moving through Dixie.

500wh.conus.png


There may be a tornado threat with this as well. Directional shear looks surprisingly good for this time of year and speed shear, while low, is in the range of values you would expect for a June severe setup. This may lend a chance to a brief, lower end tornado threat with any organized storms that can develop Friday afternoon and evening.

nam_2018062012_060_34.89--86.82.png
 

JayF

Technical Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Sustaining Member
Technical Admin
Messages
1,624
Reaction score
878
Location
Hartselle, al
HAM Callsign
KB4JCS
I was looking at that as well. GFS has it slower coming through Saturday Morning.
 

Taylor Campbell

Moderator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
2,102
Reaction score
2,189
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Please pin this to the top. This is a growing threat.
 

rolltide_130

Member
Messages
828
Reaction score
378
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
NAM showing a multiple-day threat and very much a non-zero tornado threat as well especially just to our west

stp.us_ov.png


stp.us_ov.png
 

KoD

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,380
Reaction score
697
Location
Huntsville, AL
IwbvSsHl.jpg

Looks like we have a slight risk of double bananas tomorrow per the SPC. I wonder if the lapse rates will ripen more than what has been forecasted.
 

rolltide_130

Member
Messages
828
Reaction score
378
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
Not feeling this one like I was yesterday looking at new data. Looks like early/midday junk convection is likely. That will likely kill (or at least severely damper) the severe threat.

NAM is all in (as usual) but 3km NAM has a borderline non-event with just general thunder and maybe isolated marginal wind and hail reports. The general theme this year has been go with whatever could cause the event to downtrend, so I'm going to stick with that for now unless new data changes things.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
I think the biggest thing of note will be the MCS that looks like it will roll through between Friday evening/Saturday morning. This is a pretty classic set up for one...
 

JayF

Technical Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Sustaining Member
Technical Admin
Messages
1,624
Reaction score
878
Location
Hartselle, al
HAM Callsign
KB4JCS
I love the statement in the Area Forecast Discussion:

"What happens Friday is anyone's guess at this point as model
consistency is slim to none."
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Really hoping for a nice widespread rainfall in Tuscaloosa from this system. After a pretty wet May being capped off by Alberto, we've managed just under 1" through 3 weeks of June. Storms have missed us in all directions for the past week...
 

KoD

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,380
Reaction score
697
Location
Huntsville, AL
Sure is a pretty system from satellite
9SdrjoLh.jpg
 

JayF

Technical Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Sustaining Member
Technical Admin
Messages
1,624
Reaction score
878
Location
Hartselle, al
HAM Callsign
KB4JCS
Video of LIghtning I took last night.

 

WesL

"Bill, I'm talkin' imminent rueage"
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Sustaining Member
Messages
3,344
Reaction score
2,614
Location
Fayetteville, AR
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Welcome to Madison County. Convinced our new minor league baseball team should be the N. Alabama Twisters.


upload_2018-6-22_12-57-40.png

 
  • Like
Reactions: KoD
Back
Top