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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 11/5-11/7

rolltide_130

rolltide_130

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Since the Euro is starting to hint at potentially a widespread severe weather outbreak for next week, I thought I'd get this thread going as well..

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This is concerning.. the November 2002 outbreak similarities to how this system looks so far is uncanny..
 
0z Euro is coming in hot for the threat late Monday/early Tuesday. 60+kt at 500mb and 50+kt at 850mb in North Alabama plus CAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Only possible caveat to a major outbreak I see on this run is the surface low is pretty far north up near the Great Lakes.
 
Now that we've wrapped up our initial event, good lord the Euro is SERIOUS for next week.. potentially a multi-wave, supercellular dominated event in an environment conductive to significant to perhaps violent tornadoes.. I'm seeing a lot of comparisons to Veterans Day 2002 and perhaps a daytime version of Super Tuesday 2008.. this is a very serious situation that is starting to unfold.
 
rolltide_130 said:
Now that we've wrapped up our initial event, good lord the Euro is SERIOUS for next week.. potentially a multi-wave, supercellular dominated event in an environment conductive to significant to perhaps violent tornadoes.. I'm seeing a lot of comparisons to Veterans Day 2002 and perhaps a daytime version of Super Tuesday 2008.. this is a very serious situation that is starting to unfold.
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Couldn’t said it any better myself ... yikes ....
 
rolltide_130 said:
Now that we've wrapped up our initial event, good lord the Euro is SERIOUS for next week.. potentially a multi-wave, supercellular dominated event in an environment conductive to significant to perhaps violent tornadoes.. I'm seeing a lot of comparisons to Veterans Day 2002 and perhaps a daytime version of Super Tuesday 2008.. this is a very serious situation that is starting to unfold.
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I think the Super Tuesday outbreak had at least 2 EF-4s in North Alabama that night if I remember correctly. Next week looks dangerous.
 
Still obviously some questions about timing/position of the surface low/moisture return but given that the models have tended to underestimate instability lately, and with those dynamics...potentially a very bad scenario. Vote early if you can, for sure.
 
Kory said:
The Euro is downright bad Monday/Tuesday. It's supercell city...
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Looks very dangerous for my area Monday night. Into overnight... with jet configuration like this ... discrete big time set up ... this has making of a fairly nasty tornado outbreak .... few things workout still course ... overall . The table seems set ...
 
Richardjacks said:
ouch- that is dangerous looking. To be 5 days out, I suspect the GFS will fold in a day or two or we really have to question the Euro look....but the gfs is nothing to sneeze at either.
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The Euro handled this last system very well and the GFS had its usual problems handling the surface low.. that seems to be what is happening here so I'm leaning towards the Euro for now.
 
Right now the GFS has a decent threat for us up here on Tuesday evening, although that's assuming its current positioning of the surface low is correct.
 
rolltide_130 said:
I think the GFS is initializing it too far south.. we will have to see. I think this is going to be a more typical OH Valley down into Dixie threat.
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Yeah, I think you're probably right. Given the way this last system went, I'm putting more faith in the Euro regarding the surface low. It was just funny to see it popping EHIs of 2+ in Maryland in November.
 
Figured I'd drop by to comment on this one.

The depiction from the Euro has pretty consistently been rather alarming, with the most recent 12z run perhaps being the most troubling of the bunch across a very large expanse of real estate Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon (basically from E TX and SE OK all the way into GA and perhaps even the Carolinas). It is really important to remember that with these events later in the year, destabilization will be driven as much, if not more, by advective processes versus diurnal diabatic heating (i.e. the sun). This is especially true given the powerful low level jet being suggested in some model depictions. In other words, destabilization after dark ala 11/29-30/2016 amongst a host of others.

Such a broad based trough with strong deep layer shear oriented favourably to the initiating boundaries will clearly favour a semi-discrete/discrete storm mode for a long period of time. The magnitude of deep and low level shear would clearly favour long-lived, fast moving supercells with significant tornadoes assuming adequate destabilization can take place.

There is still a fair amount of disparity here amongst the model suites, but the consistency of the Euro and its ensemble members lead to me to believe that there could be some serious problems here. This is one to really watch.
 
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