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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 11/5-11/7

Richardjacks

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Coming into the NAM range, check out that broad based trough.
500hv.conus.png
 
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12z GFS is indicating this may extend well up into the Ohio Valley as well..

To my eyes it looks like the 06z and 12z GFS backed off the instability some compared to last night's 00z. I can't see the full suite of ECMWF products so I'll have to take you guys' word for it that it is more ominous (although what I can see, the 500 mb height and MSLP, certainly looks potent). "King Euro" seems to have been dethroned a bit in recent years although I still believe it remains the superior model.
 

rolltide_130

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To my eyes it looks like the 06z and 12z GFS backed off the instability some compared to last night's 00z. I can't see the full suite of ECMWF products so I'll have to take you guys' word for it that it is more ominous (although what I can see, the 500 mb height and MSLP, certainly looks potent). "King Euro" seems to have been dethroned a bit in recent years although I still believe it remains the superior model.

The GFS struggles with instability, especially with these systems where you should expect a slowing trend yet it for some reason speeds the system up WHILE making it even deeper than it had previously. I'm not concerned about that at all.
 
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The GFS struggles with instability, especially with these systems where you should expect a slowing trend yet it for some reason speeds the system up WHILE making it even deeper than it had previously. I'm not concerned about that at all.

Yet for some reason it consistently forecasts 5,000+ j/kg and EHIs in the double digits ahead of setups in the 84-120 hour range during the summer in the Midwest. I guess that's why I have a hard time wrapping my head around it.
 
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So according to the Euro where does the worst ingredients merge at this moment? What area seems to be the most under the gun?
 

Fred Gossage

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So according to the Euro where does the worst ingredients merge at this moment? What area seems to be the most under the gun?
MS/AL/TN, and ingredients and parameters have not backed off, just faster. This would bring a high tornado threat into west and northwest AL as early as 7-8pm Monday evening, and the Euro has it ending northwest of TCL to HSV by 3am Thursday, and pushing into GA by 6am Tuesday. The model verbatim, on its simulated reflectivity product, shows an outbreak of tornadic supercells from southern Indiana, all the way down to south Mississippi and south central Alabama.
 

Richardjacks

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MS/AL/TN, and ingredients and parameters have not backed off, just faster. This would bring a high tornado threat into west and northwest AL as early as 7-8pm Monday evening, and the Euro has it ending northwest of TCL to HSV by 3am Thursday, and pushing into GA by 6am Tuesday. The model verbatim, on its simulated reflectivity product, shows an outbreak of tornadic supercells from southern Indiana, all the way down to south Mississippi and south central Alabama.
Yes, Euro is a bit quicker, wow plenty of cape for this time of the year. It seems a little fast to me.
 

Fred Gossage

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Yes, Euro is a bit quicker, wow plenty of cape for this time of the year. It seems a little fast to me.

The other globals trended faster too though. GFS isn't as fast, but now has the cold front moving into west AL by 6am Tuesday, and its ensembles support a slightly faster timing. Even the NAM at the end of the run supports a faster timing, with the surface low near St. Louis by 00Z Tuesday. This was actually the timing we originally had several days ago, when this first started showing up. I don't know if it's right, but I've noticed over the years that time timing you often see way out there is right, then in the mid range, things get wonked up, only to trend back toward the original idea as we get closer. Whether that's happening or not remains to be seen, but all guidance trended faster to some degree today.
 

Richardjacks

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The other globals trended faster too though. GFS isn't as fast, but now has the cold front moving into west AL by 6am Tuesday, and its ensembles support a slightly faster timing. Even the NAM at the end of the run supports a faster timing, with the surface low near St. Louis by 00Z Tuesday. This was actually the timing we originally had several days ago, when this first started showing up. I don't know if it's right, but I've noticed over the years that time timing you often see way out there is right, then in the mid range, things get wonked up, only to trend back toward the original idea as we get closer. Whether that's happening or not remains to be seen, but all guidance trended faster to some degree today.
Good point Fred.
 
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