Severe Weather Threat Today 11/30/2019

[Taylor Campbell]

I’m starting a thread for today’s severe weather threat. I figure it could be quite busy. Here is an interesting statement from the current Day 1 SPC outlook.

Deep-layer shear will strengthen as a powerful 500-mb jet amplifies
across the TX Panhandle and OK. This should aid in increasing
convective intensity this afternoon as effective shear averages
around 60 kts. Early morning HRRR-NCEP and HRRR-ESRL runs are more
aggressive than other individual 00Z HREF members with simulations
of several supercells from northern LA to western TN. The parent RAP
appears to be aggressive compared to other guidance with both
boundary-layer moistening and heating east of the MS River. The lack
of nearby cyclogenesis suggests this scenario is uncertain. But
should this scenario appear more likely to occur in later updates,
an upgrade to level 3 (Enhanced Slight) tornado risk would be
warranted. At this time, the more probable forecast is for a few
tornadoes centered on northern LA into western/northern MS.

 

[bwalk]

Taylor, do you have an update as we move towards 9 pm? Or any one else?

 

[Richardjacks]

Watching that cell near Gardendale, also looks like a strong squall line is shaping up back in west Al.

 

[Richardjacks]

That cell south of Parish is looking stronger

 

[StormStalker]

Flash flooding and power outages have been a problem most of the afternoon/evening here in the Shoals.

 

[bwalk]

Significant Weather Advisories being posted for a couple of counties in nw Alabama. No watches or warnings at this time (11pm).