Severe WX Tuesday, April 30, 2019 Severe Threat

[warneagle]

I figured an Enhanced Risk with a 10% hatched tornado area deserved a thread of its own, even if it’s a rather localized and conditional threat.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html (can’t post the images from my phone)

There’s a still good bit of model spread on this. The HRRR starts out with discrete supercells before some upscale growth, but the 3 km NAM just has a messy blob of convection from the start (sounds familiar).

EDIT: and right on cue, a couple of tornado warnings along the boundary. There are a couple of storms trying to get going in the open warm sector too.

 

[warneagle]

Confirmed tornado near Hickory, OK. This is starting to look like a victory for the HRRR.

 

[DDM]

Brett Adair just had a large cone tornado on his stream near Sulphur, OK. Doesn't appear to have hit anything significant, thankfully.

 

[warneagle]

It’s gonna be a close call for Hickory.

 

[warneagle]

SPC is also considering a watch further north in MO/IL along the warm front.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 479

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[bwalk]

Oklahoma is definitely under the gun today (4/30). Tornado probabilities.

 

[warneagle]

Some more footage of the Hickory tornado.

 

[warneagle]

Confirmed tornado near Haskell, OK (southeast of Tulsa).



The storm near Ramona is very impressive as well. I’d be surprised if that wasn’t producing.

 

[warneagle]

Probably a significant tornado in progress near Talala, OK. PDS warning now.

 

[bwalk]

GRLevel must be crapping out. It is not showing any warnings for Ok at 3pm CST.

 

[warneagle]

GTG shear of 120 mph, debris above 10K feet with the storm near Talala.

 

[warneagle]

TDS near Lenapah too, and a tornado on the ground near Wagoner as well according to KOTV. So three tornadoes on the ground and this is north of where the best environment is. If storms start popping further to the south...yikes.

 

[DaveFromGA]

Up to 9 tornado warnings at the moment.

 

[DaveFromGA]

 

[warneagle]

Confirmed tornado approaching Lead Hill, AR

 

[DaveFromGA]

 

[warneagle]

Strong rotation moving into Miller, MO. Good chance that’s on the ground.

 

[buckeye05]

Was just about to say. Miller may have taken a direct hit. Extremely impressive signature.

 

[warneagle]

Confirmed tornado near Miller according to local media.

 

[Kory]

Looks like we’ve got ourselves a little outbreak going.