Severe Weather 2018

[Taylor Campbell]

A thread to discuss this year’s severe weather season.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

CMC, GFS, and EURO are completely different first few days of February. CMC wants to cut off, GFS wants to dig trough further east, and the EURO wants to dig it deep in the west. I’m not sure what EURO, and CMC ensembles show, but I do know that the GFS has some ensembles in favor of the operational EURO. Should the operational EURO, and few GFS ensembles transpire then we will have a pretty active pattern for severe weather setting up soon.

 

[Mike S]

CMC, GFS, and EURO are completely different first few days of February. CMC wants to cut off, GFS wants to dig trough further east, and the EURO wants to dig it deep in the west. I’m not sure what EURO, and CMC ensembles show, but I do know that the GFS has some ensembles in favor of the operational EURO. Should the operational EURO, and few GFS ensembles transpire then we will have a pretty active pattern for severe weather setting up soon.

I saw somewhere that towards the end of the first week of February temps may drop again significantly. I guess this would be leading up to that.

 

[rolltide_130]

There may be a conditional severe weather threat towards the beginning of February, but I'm not holding my breath too much for that until the synoptic setup gets more clear.

However, after that, we are definitely going to plunge into winter again. The last 2/3rds of February are not going to be favorable for severe at all, and this may continue on into the beginning of March.. and potentially after. This Nina pattern may decay and die off extremely fast here over the coming weeks, and that could cause big questions marks about the spring pattern and it could lock us into another 2014-2015 type look.. especially since this western ridging pattern seems like it's beginning to become a semi-permanent climate feature..

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Today’s 12z CMC run was more in line with the EURO.

 

[Kory]

Just saying, the PNA (western ridging) was quite positive during January and then March of 2011...

2011 1 1 0.051
2011 1 2 0.335
2011 1 3 0.547
2011 1 4 0.464
2011 1 5 0.104
2011 1 6 0.098
2011 1 7 0.148
2011 1 8 -0.063
2011 1 9 -0.222
2011 1 10 -0.309
2011 1 11 -0.570
2011 1 12 -0.442
2011 1 13 -0.043
2011 1 14 0.560
2011 1 15 1.040
2011 1 16 1.126
2011 1 17 1.137
2011 1 18 0.851
2011 1 19 0.831
2011 1 20 0.939
2011 1 21 0.874
2011 1 22 1.061
2011 1 23 1.205
2011 1 24 1.110
2011 1 25 1.098
2011 1 26 1.233
2011 1 27 1.292
2011 1 28 1.120
2011 1 29 0.823
2011 1 30 0.688
2011 1 31 0.774
2011 2 1 0.908
2011 2 2 0.683
2011 2 3 0.381
2011 2 4 0.041
2011 2 5 -0.068
2011 2 6 -0.016
2011 2 7 -0.075
2011 2 8 -0.082
2011 2 9 -0.214
2011 2 10 -0.115
2011 2 11 -0.301
2011 2 12 -0.647
2011 2 13 -0.993
2011 2 14 -1.227
2011 2 15 -1.404
2011 2 16 -1.555
2011 2 17 -1.608
2011 2 18 -1.440
2011 2 19 -1.213
2011 2 20 -1.384
2011 2 21 -1.454
2011 2 22 -1.332
2011 2 23 -1.219
2011 2 24 -1.216
2011 2 25 -1.323
2011 2 26 -1.463
2011 2 27 -1.085
2011 2 28 -0.845
2011 3 1 -0.712
2011 3 2 -0.305
2011 3 3 0.083
2011 3 4 0.175
2011 3 5 0.361
2011 3 6 0.672
2011 3 7 0.711
2011 3 8 0.396
2011 3 9 0.349
2011 3 10 0.572
2011 3 11 0.713
2011 3 12 0.575
2011 3 13 0.645
2011 3 14 0.912
2011 3 15 1.155
2011 3 16 1.034
2011 3 17 0.740
2011 3 18 0.281
2011 3 19 -0.097
2011 3 20 -0.054
2011 3 21 0.214
2011 3 22 0.434
2011 3 23 0.425
2011 3 24 0.308
2011 3 25 0.209
2011 3 26 0.386
2011 3 27 0.682
2011 3 28 0.906
2011 3 29 0.941
2011 3 30 0.775
2011 3 31 0.589

2014/2015 was driven by an anomalous warm pool in the NE Pacific that broke records. We don't have that...and we've been deeply in a La Nina driven pattern since October/November...I don't see that changing anytime soon.

 

[SilentShadow87]

especially since this western ridging pattern seems like it's beginning to become a semi-permanent climate feature..

Which was one of the main causes of the 2012-2015 severe weather lapse. If this does become permanent it could mean a decrease in overall severe weather patterns.

This is definitely a good thing for the people in areas which are normally in the sights of severe storms, but pretty frustrating from the perspective of an aspiring storm chaser.

 

[rolltide_130]

Which was one of the main causes of the 2012-2015 severe weather lapse. If this does become permanent it could mean a decrease in overall severe weather patterns.

This is definitely a good thing for the people in areas which are normally in the sights of severe storms, but pretty frustrating from the perspective of an aspiring storm chaser.

Admittedly, I did get a little knee-jerkish with my post the other night. I had a discussion with one of our former members (and this echoes Kory's thoughts above) who still lurks around and saw my post, and he pointed out to me that this is actually to be expected with La Nina winters and this is nothing unusual.. and that an above average season is something that may very well be in the works for us this year. Granted, I am a little jaded after the flopfests of 2012-2017, but we aren't dead in the water by any means.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

It was a long shot, and I was pulling for it, but it was a long shot, and it’s not happening. The real pattern setting up doesn't look good for severe weather. We were below average for January, and February will likely be below average. Maybe March-May will be above average, but this pattern is stubborn, and I’m concerned rolltide is right about another 2014-2015.

 

[Kory]

IT. IS. JANUARY.

We had people cancelling the hurricane season back in August before Harvey.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

IT. IS. JANUARY.

We had people cancelling the hurricane season back in August before Harvey.

I’ll have to look, but it seems that our March-May period isn’t that active when we have a very quite January followed by a very quite February. I could be wrong in some instances though. If I am, I wonder what years?

 

[Kory]

2003 is one that comes to mind that had zero tornadoes for January and 12 for February. That turned out to be an active April and prolific May. That is just one off the top of my head.

 

[Kory]

Most of Feb is probably going to come in pretty quiet. Huge North Pacific block and downstream pattern likely won't be favorable (have you seen the MJO is raging in unfavorable severe wx states). Background Nina state is still there though...

 

[rolltide_130]

Most of Feb is probably going to come in pretty quiet. Huge North Pacific block and downstream pattern likely won't be favorable (have you seen the MJO is raging in unfavorable severe wx states). Background Nina state is still there though...

I have heard rumblings the MJO will flip to Phase 2 in early March which could open the gates for both some quenching rains for the SW/Plains and a more active pattern here. That will be something to watch..

 

[Kory]

I have heard rumblings the MJO will flip to Phase 2 in early March which could open the gates for both some quenching rains for the SW/Plains and a more active pattern here. That will be something to watch..

Yeah longer range MJO forecasts have it rounding 8/1/2 by late Feb.

 

[akt1985]

Speaking of severe weather, today is the 10th Anniversary of the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak that hit the Mid South.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Speaking of severe weather, today is the 10th Anniversary of the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak that hit the Mid South.

Yeah. Ef4! Hit right here Jackson tn that evening. I was on top that one ... I’m ready for active spring. Think we will have one finally. Due to mjo movement . End February think we start see some west triughing finally. I have more on this later

 

[rolltide_130]

Speaking of severe weather, today is the 10th Anniversary of the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak that hit the Mid South.

At the time, a lot of people thought that's about as bad as it could get, and that April 3, 1974 was an anomaly we'd never see again in our lifetimes.

And we all know how that worked out..

 

[akt1985]

The Super Tuesday Outbreak also featured the longest track tornado in Arkansas history.

 

[Kory]

At the time, a lot of people thought that's about as bad as it could get, and that April 3, 1974 was an anomaly we'd never see again in our lifetimes.

And we all know how that worked out..

That's kind of how I felt about the April 14-16, 2011 outbreak...the sheer number of tornadoes, that event was crazy.