Severe Weather 2018

[rolltide_130]

Time to start turning our attention towards the longer range Euro.. this may wind up being our first substantial severe weather threat of the season if this can hold together..

 

[Kory]

The trend across ensemble guidance is to shift mean troughing out into the Intermountain West (for the week 2/3 period). The atmosphere will be shifting back to a background La Nina state, as the GWO rounds into phase 1 and 2.

We're going to remain in this active pattern with many systems passing through the region. All signs point to continued above normal rainfall and above normal temps (with maybe a brief cool blast).

 

[rolltide_130]

Euro is continuing to show the early makings of a potentially substantial severe weather threat about 12-14 days out across points E of the MS River. Still some kinks to work out (I'd like to see the SE Ridge a smidge further east), but this is still a very active pattern nonetheless..

 

[Kory]

We won't have to worry about a re-surging drought with this pattern...that's for sure.

 

[rolltide_130]

We won't have to worry about a re-surging drought with this pattern...that's for sure.

This overall pattern may help alleviate the plains drought as well.. which bodes well for me since I'm going back out in May..

 

[Jason Ledbetter]

This drought busting rains we have seen in north west Ga has both my septic systems full of water... I need just a little break so I can take care of that... Rant over....lol!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

There were more eye catching ensemble members on the 06z GFS. Let’s see what the 12z shows.

 

[Kory]

Ongoing and major sudden stratospheric warming event that is going to shift a massive block over Greenland and the Poles. This is going to displace the PV and significant troughing over Western Canada and NW U.S. We should see another big shift to pattern suppression come the end of Feb into early March.

 

[rolltide_130]

Starting to run into issues with the ridge being pumped up too much on the 12z Euro. That needs to get suppressed some for this thing to work out..

 

[Taylor Campbell]

A lot to figure out with this one. The trough is much faster to dig on the EURO. It looks to have it coming onshore the northwest by Saturday, and the GFS isn’t until next Monday.

 

[MattW]

For those of us not so climatologically knowledgeable, can someone explain what the effects of this stuff is?

 

[gangstonc]

79 in North alabama on Tuesday. We are at least getting an early start on one of the ingredients this year.

 

[MichelleH]

Getting to be that time of year....for those of you who know how to read models, does it look like there any storms in the near future? Loving the warm weather, but I live in the heart of Dixie Alley, so I know what comes with Spring.

 

[rolltide_130]

Getting to be that time of year....for those of you who know how to read models, does it look like there any storms in the near future? Loving the warm weather, but I live in the heart of Dixie Alley, so I know what comes with Spring.

Surprisingly not. The warmth in this place but the upper air pattern is a total mess. Trough after trough is coming in but getting sheared out, despite the repeated attempts at suppressing the SE Ridge.

 

[Kory]

Saturday certainly doesn't look bad. Especially on the Euro.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Saturday certainly doesn't look bad. Especially on the Euro.

Yep. Beat me to it. Lol

 

[rolltide_130]

Saturday certainly doesn't look bad. Especially on the Euro.

I'm a little bit iffy for the deep south (I see a potential problem with the SE ridging for us in AL as of now..), but it's something to keep an eye on for sure..

 

[Kory]

We have some questions marks with regards to severe wx this coming Saturday and Sunday. Timing is a big one. Per usual, the Euro/CMC is slower with the GFS being faster. Lapse rates are a bit on the weaker side and models are handling the strength of the surface low and subsequent LLJ different. Euro and GFS sort of flip-flopped...with the Euro being a weaker solution overall and the GFS being a more potent solution. Will likely have some stronger to severe storms, especially toward the Mississippi River Valley, but how widespread and intense are the question...

 

[rolltide_130]

We have some questions marks with regards to severe wx this coming Saturday and Sunday. Timing is a big one. Per usual, the Euro/CMC is slower with the GFS being faster. Lapse rates are a bit on the weaker side and models are handling the strength of the surface low and subsequent LLJ different. Euro and GFS sort of flip-flopped...with the Euro being a weaker solution overall and the GFS being a more potent solution. Will likely have some stronger to severe storms, especially toward the Mississippi River Valley, but how widespread and intense are the question...

Okay let's try to type this again:

Euro really wants to shear out the trough and force it north as it interacts with the SE ridge. I haven't been watching trends this winter so I'm not sure if it's been over or under doing the ridge in the MR, but this entire thing hinges on the ridge getting suppressed enough..

For lapse rates, we MAY be able to overcome that with an unusually potent warm sector for late February, but it's way too early to make that call.

 

[rolltide_130]

12z GFS is a higher-end threat for the mid-south from a kinematic point of view. The thermos are the ususal poop the GFS spits out however.