It has my attention too. CAPE is still up in the air but shear is plenty. As long as there's no blocking mechanism along the coast and we get adequate moisture return and forcing, the CAPE will be sufficient. We can get away with CAPE below 500 if other parameters make up for it.So Eric Burke of WAFF in Huntsville is hinting at possible severe weather Monday 12/31...any thoughts?
We certainly overdue for a active. Season. To say the least ...For whatever it's worth my copy of the Farmer's Almanac seems to be forecasting an active severe weather season for 2019 if the El Nino holds out. Even though large outbreaks are more associated with Ninas, there definitely have been impressive seasons during Nino years. 1953, 1965, 1968, 1977, 1991, 1997, 2004, and 2015 come to mind.
As an aspiring chaser, I do hope they're right, although it is definitely a catch-22 as you never want to see loss of life and widespread destruction. A season like 2016 (large number of photogenic thunderstorms and tornadoes with relatively low loss of life and property) would be amazing.