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Xenesthis
Guest
I am clueless and know nothing
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gangstonc
Member
Perfect. Thank you.Is this what you are looking for?
Do the temps not seem a little cool for a severe weather outbreak north of about Bham. Looks like it will be about 70 in HSV, or is that underdone?
If the NAM and GFS were right about having temps as cool as they have them overnight with every other time they have them during a severe weather threat, there would never be any tornadoes in history past 5:00pm. That's all I will say...
MOS/MEX guidance has highs of 74-78 for HSV and MSL Monday afternoon. Those are often much closer to reality in situations like this than the map-based operational models that always magically decouple the boundary layer right at sunset because of their parameterization schemes relation to solar radiation and such.
tennessee storm chaser
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15 minutes away from 3 day outlook from spc... 0z euro wanting slow down bit vs 12z. Interesting seems trying develop another slp back nw ark... talking bout backing winds ... ouch
Gail
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tennessee storm chaser
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That is one large 3 day enhanced ...area
Gail
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tennessee storm chaser
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Just now noticed. Wow... think I have never seen that on day 3. Correct me if I’m wrong
Gail
Member
I’m not sure, but I don’t like that I’m in that zone! I hate middle of the night events.
We've seen up to Moderate Risks on the Day 3 more than a few times over the years, including over your specific area....
tennessee storm chaser
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Guess just forgot ... but that is a rather large area ...
Timhsv
Member
Boy...... this is gonna be ugly
CheeselandSkies
Member
Who else is waiting with bated breath for the 12Z NAM and 3KM NAM to finish?
Kory
Member
Can't say I'm particularly impressed with the 12z NAM. The evolution of the shortwave kicking NE and leaving behind rising heights is too reminiscent of 12/23/15. Overall, the evolution is very similar to that event in my opinion. Granted, that was still a localized significant event, but spatially, that it was a bust.
I am NOT saying that about this situation. I'm just comparing the overall evolution of the 500mb trough.
I am NOT saying that about this situation. I'm just comparing the overall evolution of the 500mb trough.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Yeah, nothing much going at 00z Tuesday according to the first sniff of the 3K.
- Thread starter
- #120
rolltide_130
Member
It also had a horrible handle on the sfc low. I think it's a bad run. The 3km NAM also limits the threat to South AL? Very odd.
