Kory
Member
And there's the NAM on board. Nasty environment across MS/AL/TN later Monday into Tuesday.
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NWMSGuy
Member
So if I’m looking at the EURO right, this is an early Tuesday threat for Memphis area?
Frogge
Member
No, Monday night before midnight. Euro is faster than NAM and GFS but all pretty much have the threat out of Memphis around midnight. GFS is running now so lets see if it changes
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NWMSGuy
Member
Thanks for the info! The model timings are a little confusing to me, admittedly.
Frogge
Member
I know its obvious but being this far out I wouldn't bank on any model timing yet... Even with that said I doubt Memphis will be in the hot seat after midnight.
NWMSGuy
Member
Memphis AFD calling for possibly isolated Tornadoes. Any of you seeing this being the case or worse?
tennessee storm chaser
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their mornings afd been nore bullish... lasttwo days been like that... yeah, no doubt iso tornadoes is a safe bet... but i tend think there could be little more than isolated... watch tomorrow mornings afd go more bullish again and more detailed...
NWMSGuy
Member
Yeah probably waiting on the SPC to pull the trigger 1st if Moderate is introduced.
CheeselandSkies
Member
BMX AFD made a good explanation about what has been giving me the most pause looking at the recent model runs.
Yep, this is a very common thing down here during the cool season. I think it relates to the parameterization related to insolation and solar radiation. The only models that don't have as bad of a time with this historically are the CAMs, and even they struggle with it to a degree. And fwiw, 3 km NAM and Euro are starting to face value show this kind of CAPE now, as far north as the TN line in MS/AL...
I find the 18z nam 3k hour 60 look to be very concerning for north al. The warm sector is wide open.
Timhsv
Member
RJ...I see a hot spot of 4.2 0-3KM EHI in Colbert County
Oh, the 1 km values are that high once you click on the forecast soundings on pivotalweather.com, and you're able to apply the virtual temperature correction to the forecast soundings. The environment modeled in much of west and north Alabama has 0-1 km SRH over 400 m2/s2, 67-70 dewpoints at face value 1500-2000 j/kg SBCAPE, and 0-3 km CAPE over 110 j/kg. That last one is a critical parameter for EF4+ tornado environments, and it exceeds the typical value associated with them. ECMWF also already has face value modeled CAPE in excess of 2000 j/kg in some of these areas.
Timhsv
Member
Dear Lord Fred.....0-1km at over 400 m2/s2 :
Fred are using real SharpY for adjusting for Vt?
Dear Lord Fred.....0-1km at over 400 m2/s2 :
0-1 km bulk shear has been modeled to be 45-50+ kts over much of northern and central AL. We are well into the EF4+ range with a lot of these critical tornado parameters, in an environment that has forcing geometry and deep-layer shear orientation that is favorable for discrete, long-track, fast-moving supercells. If things don't start backing off very soon (and given how much consistency we have now, how close we are, and how the large-scale mechanisms in setups like this drive much of the smaller scale... we are rapidly running out of time for said changes), I have a feeling that SPC might be breaking out their pink crayon around midnight tomorrow night...
Dear Lord Fred.....0-1km at over 400 m2/s2 :
Not directly. The soundings on pivotalweather.com are created by the same software that Sharp-py was build from, so they have the same algorithms.
Timhsv
Member
10-4...Got it. Thanks Fred
Hpdb301
Member
The 3km NAM tornado parameters are incredible, the soundings in North Alabama are PDS Tor just about anywhere you click. Gonna be a long couple nights of model watching.
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model...fh=60&r=conus&lat=34.6244&lon=-87.2354&metar=
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model...fh=60&r=conus&lat=34.6244&lon=-87.2354&metar=
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One of the methods used to predict storm motion is forecasting 65 knots out of 235 degrees over northeast MS and northwest Alabama per the latest NAM data. Wow. I personally consider this method very reliable and wouldn't be shocked at all if it verifies...
