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- Messages
- 1,439
- Location
- Huntsville, AL
SPC is predicting an enormous Avocado
rolltide_130
Member
Some of the overnight models were less than impressive. Going to have to see if the 12z suites correct themselves or if we are actually losing this system.
I’m sorry, but that’s not true.
rolltide_130
Member
I'm not trying to get into an argument, but this came from a BMX forecaster who is very, very good at his job.
rolltide_130
Member
12z 3km NAM is actually RAMPING UP the threat.. NAM is holding steady as well. I think there was much ado about nothing for the overnight runs (Which included the GFS, FV3M, and Euro)
He just shifted the threat levels more north, and west by a county. Still forecasting possibility of long track tornadoes.
Hpdb301
Member
- Messages
- 21
- Location
- Hartselle, AL
Actually,(I'm not a forecaster) but he is correct in a sense.... They were not showing as significant of parameters and has the bulk of the energy lifting to the north quicker. There are still parameters in play that are indicative of severe weather. I guess it would really depend on if your house were to be in the way of one of the storms is how you'd have to define how significant that this run really is (if you take it a face value).
Yes the AFD at BMX and HUN were slightly tuned down a notch (in my opinion), but remember as much as we hope it all falls apart and nobody see's any destruction. We have now seen a trend over the past 3 model runs, that aren't displaying the significant parameters that were being displayed this time yesterday. So keep watching and be prepared if this were to develop as modeled yesterday and be thankful if it doesn't develop!
Meteorology is a wonderful game, I guarantee we won't know the full story until Tuesday after the event has passed
Hang around for the next run, I guarantee something is gonna look different!
Kory
Member
- Messages
- 4,928
- Location
- Tuscaloosa, Alabama
HRRR long range has supercells erupting across North MS and Southern TN tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Jason Ledbetter
Member
- Messages
- 141
- Location
- Cartersville Ga
Y'all keep that junk in Alabama! We don't need any storms here in NW GA!
- Messages
- 1,411
- Location
- Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
Here is the reason why the highest risk shifted nw overnight. Notice that the NAM has the highest winds aloft shifting north...almost like it is trying to avoid Alabama...if that shift north is delayed any, then that would increase the shear and push the highest risk further south. The risk is still quite high for NW Alabama...just not as far south as what the Euro was showing.
Attachments
Hpdb301
Member
- Messages
- 21
- Location
- Hartselle, AL
I'M GOOD WITH IT!!
tennessee storm chaser
Member
SPC shifted the 30 percent hatched slightly more ne
Kory
Member
- Messages
- 4,928
- Location
- Tuscaloosa, Alabama
SPC introduced strong tor wording but did trim the enhanced northwest. Takes more of central AL out of the greatest risk.
- Messages
- 1,338
- Location
- Cullman, AL
Although that could be changed again by tomorrow morning.
It could, but BMX's discussion says that is somewhat unlikely.
rolltide_130
Member
SPC added the significant tornado area back. I wonder why they removed it to begin with..
Perhaps it was just a mistake?
warneagle
Member
That would be my guess. No reason to have changed it on purpose.
Kory
Member
- Messages
- 4,928
- Location
- Tuscaloosa, Alabama
HRRR continues to show supercells breaking out across MS/TN tomorrow afternoon. They progress eastward into AL after dark. It is showing some convection developing in the free warm sector ahead of the main line.