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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 11/5-11/7

So given these intense parameters for northern Alabama do they by chance extend up into Southern middle Tennessee?
 
CAL said:
One of the methods used to predict storm motion is forecasting 65 knots out of 235 degrees over northeast MS and northwest Alabama per the latest NAM data. Wow. I personally consider this method very reliable and wouldn't be shocked at all if it verifies...
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CAL said:
One of the methods used to predict storm motion is forecasting 65 knots out of 235 degrees over northeast MS and northwest Alabama per the latest NAM data. Wow. I personally consider this method very reliable and wouldn't be shocked at all if it verifies...
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Oh man Chris:oops: I've got your Height Discontinuity chart ready
 
Xenesthis said:
So given these intense parameters for northern Alabama do they by chance extend up into Southern middle Tennessee?
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Especially once you account for boundary layer decoupling, they extend (at this level of seriousness) from near Nashville, down to central Mississippi and Alabama... and it's not just the 3 km NAM. Euro is just as intense with CAPE, dewpoints, and shear... with a synoptic system even stronger than the NAM (that does what it does as discussed above).
 
Fred Gossage said:
Especially once you account for boundary layer decoupling, they extend (at this level of seriousness) from near Nashville, down to central Mississippi and Alabama... and it's not just the 3 km NAM. Euro is just as intense with CAPE, dewpoints, and shear... with a synoptic system even stronger than the NAM (that does what it does as discussed above).
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Ok reason I ask is because I am south of I-40 and east of Murfreesboro by 40 miles
 
My personal thoughts are with time remaining for some shifting, anyone within 100 miles of the current enhanced outlook needs to be paying close attention and have a plan. This is not to say this is a 100% gurantee that any one city or region will be specifically affected. You just can't go wrong with being prepared and now is the time to begin thinking about it. These are significant parameters for this time of year heck really anytime of year and it could still Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency.... but the opportunity for a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency is rapidly coming to an end.
 
Hpdb301 said:
My personal thoughts are with time remaining for some shifting, anyone within 100 miles of the current enhanced outlook needs to be paying close attention and have a plan. This is not to say this is a 100% gurantee that any one city or region will be specifically affected. You just can't go wrong with being prepared and now is the time to begin thinking about it. These are significant parameters for this time of year heck really anytime of year and it could still Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency.... but the opportunity for a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency is rapidly coming to an end.
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Agreed! Being prepared is vital. Granted we don’t want to bring panick but I hope they really use strong wording if these parameters stay in place as they are now. I am also afraid that time for a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency is almost closed at this point
 
Yep, no reason to panic I've witnesses a "sure thing" high risk by spc be a total Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. Granted different day much different setup. But always good to be prepared! The wonerful world of meteorology, couldn't imagine being a tv meteorologist.
 
Hpdb301 said:
Yep, no reason to panic I've witnesses a "sure thing" high risk by spc be a total Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. Granted different day much different setup. But always good to be prepared! The wonerful world of meteorology, couldn't imagine being a tv meteorologist.
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Totally true... This particular set up though I honestly don’t see it happening. We will know better tomorrow I think for sure
 
Timhsv said:
Oh man Chris:oops: I've got your Height Discontinuity chart ready
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Awesome! I sure hope it helps. Another interesting item: the box method is showing the potential for right moving supercells, despite the immense speed shear. Not something we see too often in the southeast, right movers during our bigger tornado outbreaks. An interesting mix seems to be shaping up.
 
CAL said:
Awesome! I sure hope it helps. Another interesting item: the box method is showing the potential for right moving supercells, despite the immense speed shear. Not something we see too often in the southeast, right movers during our bigger tornado outbreaks. An interesting mix seems to be shaping up.
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This is different... what kind of effect would you think that may have?
 
Xenesthis said:
This is different... what kind of effect would you think that may have?
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It is a fascinating study. Despite what intuition may allude, not all supercells move to the right of the mean wind. It has been observed that many southeast tornado outbreaks feature kinematics which do not favor deviant motion. However, if right motion does occur, it would definitely increase the value of storm relative helicity.
 
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Hpdb301 said:
This is one the features SWIRL is studying in the southeast specifically North Alabama, Southern TN is how and what topographical features affect storms in our area.
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Sweet! This is quite interesting. This whole set up seems unique to its own
 
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