• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 11/5-11/7

Yeah the 18z NAM is rough. A string of tornadic supercells crossing Arkansas and northern Louisiana. A bit slower with the system than the others but a very potent setup with the dynamics. Not taking it face value at this range but STP values were eye-opening.
 
The one fly in the ointment, if there is one, is that the GFS seemed to hint at the potential for convection ongoing in the Gulf. (Yeah real shocking I know) I'm not sure how much of an impact that will have but it has a signal for that. It didn't seem like it was particularly impactful but that is a signal I picked up on when looking over the model suites today.
 
Kory said:
I don't see coastal convection being an issue. Unlike yesterday, there will be height rises over the Gulf. We had a lot of forcing very close to the Gulf that created a mass of convection down there.
Click to expand...

I was on the fence about that. It also seemed like it was elevated and lighter convection. The GFS also seemed to mysteriously weaken the EML which.. considering the 500mb trough itself is STRENGTHENING which each run.. seems to defy logic.
 
rolltide_130 said:
The one fly in the ointment, if there is one, is that the GFS seemed to hint at the potential for convection ongoing in the Gulf. (Yeah real shocking I know) I'm not sure how much of an impact that will have but it has a signal for that. It didn't seem like it was particularly impactful but that is a signal I picked up on when looking over the model suites today.
Click to expand...
I don't buy it at this point.
 
rolltide_130 said:
The one fly in the ointment, if there is one, is that the GFS seemed to hint at the potential for convection ongoing in the Gulf. (Yeah real shocking I know) I'm not sure how much of an impact that will have but it has a signal for that. It didn't seem like it was particularly impactful but that is a signal I picked up on when looking over the model suites today.
Click to expand...
With such a large warm sector in place, it wouldn’t hamper things too much would it?
 
gangstonc said:
With such a large warm sector in place, it wouldn’t hamper things too much would it?
Click to expand...

Like discussed above after he posted that, it's not even believable at all because the Gulf Coast and northern Gulf will be under shortwave ridging aloft with increasing mid-level heights. That would mean sinking air and there will probably also be capping.
 
I feel there needs to be more research on this coastal convection issue... much more. Honestly, I'm not sure we understand it that well as a meteorological community. Someone could do some really nice research on it for sure!
 
Fred Gossage said:
Like discussed above after he posted that, it's not even believable at all because the Gulf Coast and northern Gulf will be under shortwave ridging aloft with increasing mid-level heights. That would mean sinking air and there will probably also be capping.
Click to expand...
So basically there is literally nothing getting in the way of this?
 
Am I the only one here having a gut wrenching feeling about this?
 
Mark my words this will go down in history for tornado outbreaks...
 
I've removed a few posts. Please stay on topic.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top