Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 11/5-11/7

[tennessee storm chaser]

It also had a horrible handle on the sfc low. I think it's a bad run. The 3km NAM also limits the threat to South AL? Very odd.

think a moderate risk area is now out of the question.... begin to wonder...

 

[KoD]

think a moderate risk area is now out of the question.... begin to wonder...

It's just one run & one model. I suggest waiting for some more consistency and agreement before jumping off the cliff


Is there potential for junk convection to decrease the risk for eastern portions of Dixie? It looks like CIN is pretty low while the LLJ is belting in the moisture.

 

[rolltide_130]

It's just one run & one model. I suggest waiting for some more consistency and agreement before jumping off the cliff


Is there potential for junk convection to decrease the risk for eastern portions of Dixie? It looks like CIN is pretty low while the LLJ is belting in the moisture.

Junk convection chances look low.. the NAM really has just been odd this morning. I think it's a bad run for now.

 

[Richardjacks]

wow the nam looks so confused..if the 12z euro comes in different, then it might be on to something

 

[Kory]

GFS holds serve. There is convection across the open warm sector later in the day Monday that would likely be at severe threshold.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Wondering if the EURO will cave to the GFS.

 

[Frogge]

Friends don't let friends model hug .

 

[Kory]

Rarely do you see a wholesale cave at this range. Usually a blend of the two is a safe bet.

 

[WesL]

Friends don't let friends model hug .

LOL - Welcome to TalkWeather!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

wow the nam looks so confused..if the 12z euro comes in different, then it might be on to something

Still think. Nam is still within its wacky stage hour ... now showing this 0z tonite. Maybe on to something

 

[Kory]

UKMET is fast. Looks like it might be a touch further south with the trough base than the GFS.

 

[Xenesthis]

Latest sounding off the NAM Tuesday morning at 9am in Murfreesboro TN

 

[Frogge]

From what I am hearing the EURO still shows a very strong system. Does not cave to the NAM

 

[rolltide_130]

NAM is completely on its own. Euro is STRONGER if anything.. I think NAM was a bad run..

 

[Kory]

Euro/UKMET are pretty much the same (not surprising as they pretty much share the same physics). It's a bit faster, but still is a sizable severe wx event.

 

[Richardjacks]

The euro suggests a little more junk convection in the beginning in north Alabama. Kind of looks like an east to west boundary in a highly climatologically favored area for tornadoes.

 

[Kory]

Euro is really getting some pretty good instability up into MS/AL and into TN.

 

[Frogge]

Euro is stronger than pervious Euro. NAM is by itself..... Given the past few years history I would bet something around the Euro will verify

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Even with the less impressive 12Z NAM, 1KM EHIs are still around 1.5 in N. AL and that's at 06Z-09Z Tuesday morning. The biggest fly in the ointment I've been seeing on forecast soundings are the lapse rates, which are generally <6.5 degrees C/km at any level. Generally in cool season/overnight events you want very cold air aloft to make up for the relatively less surface moisture/diurnal heating to get them to pan out.

 

[Kory]

Even with the less impressive 12Z NAM, 1KM EHIs are still around 1.5 in N. AL and that's at 06Z-09Z Tuesday morning. The biggest fly in the ointment I've been seeing on forecast soundings are the lapse rates, which are generally <6.5 degrees C/km at any level. Generally in cool season/overnight events you want very cold air aloft to make up for the relatively less surface moisture/diurnal heating to get them to pan out.

There's some pretty solid low level moisture advection across all models (upper 60s to near 70 degree dew points). I don't think that will be too much of an issue.