Severe Weather 2020

[gangstonc]

They must have very high confidence.

Or very low!

 

[Brice]

Yeah, I think tomorrow or Sunday we'll see how this plays out.

 

[Brice]

Once Sunday comes around I'm probably going to make a thread on the severe threat for Tuesday-Wednesday if it looks good.

 

[Bevo]

SPC has a 15% up now on their Day 4 Tuesday.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

SPC has a 15% up now on their Day 4 Tuesday.

Ukie and euro r holding serve for a pretty good severe event Tuesday into Wednesday for midsouth tennessee valley regions

 

[Matt Grantham]

 

[Bevo]

Texas/Oklahoma looks to have impressive instability (2000-4000+, in some cases almost 5000 CAPE) for Tuesday afternoon/overnight. I think the main concern at this time has been touted as large to giant hail and winds, but some soundings indicate tornado potential. The amount of shear seems pretty inconsistent as of now though. For the second time in a week, the gulf is just spewing 70s+ dews into north and central Texas...hopefully the cap holds again.

 

[Brice]

Stay safe as Dallas is in the slight risk.

 

[Matt Grantham]

 

[Kory]

It’s quite a season so far.

 

[Equus]

I think 2011 might have skewed perspectives, this would probably be the most remarkable April of the 2000s aside from that singular year

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I created a thread for tomorrow and Wednesday’s severe threat (https://talkweather.com/threads/april-28th-29th-2020-severe-weather-threat.1513/). I could see the significance of this threat ramping up real quickly for Wednesday.

 

[Bevo]

Here comes May. Next week looks like it could get kinda busy, possibly some mid-Great Plains/Tennessee valley action according to Euro and GFS. Big differences in timing and intensity though, to be expected this far out.

 

[Brice]

I think the bigger threat will be for the Ohio Valley since that Low pressure is going to be stronger than the first one.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Huntsville mentioned possible severe threat Monday. Didn’t sound too confident though.

 

[Jacob]

I think 2011 might have skewed perspectives, this would probably be the most remarkable April of the 2000s aside from that singular year

I think that is a very fair assessment.

 

[MichelleH]

I think that is a very fair assessment.

I thought 4/3/1974 was 148 confirmed tornadoes?

 

[Peter Griffin]

I think that is a very fair assessment.

That's just obsurd. 2011 just about triples any of the other 4 Aprils listed. Doesn't even seem like it could be accurate but it is.

 

[Equus]

I think those numbers are for the single 24 hour period defined by convective outlooks, with the last few '74 tornadoes the following morning after the threshold

Likewise for 4/27… the whole morning round would technically count as being during the 4/26 convective outlook period for that, which I THINK is 7am to 7am

 

[Brice]

Tornado Outlook for May: Early May isn't looking favorable for significant severe outbreaks as the trough will be over the Mid-Atlantic most of the time. Once May 13th comes around, and past that, there will be a few pretty favorable chances for tornadoes as a trough will dig into the Southwest and curve it's way Northeast through the Southern parts (Texas, Oklahoma) of Tornado Alley. (This is a broad view so most likely, changes will be made)