Severe Weather 2020

[Brice]

BMX is Birmingham's CWA, so for at least Central Alabama.

Southeast has had enough with 3 EF4's in the past 2 weeks. Hopefully it won't be like the past 2 weeks. I can't make any promises though.

 

[andyhb]

Regarding the poll for this thread, the AA calls are already winning, maybe even the MAA calls at this point. Anything on top of this is basically gravy.

 

[Keldeo]

Storm Prediction Center Apr 15, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Here we go again....

"Significant severe storms are expected over parts of the Southeast
on Thursday, including the potential for strong tornadoes."






"The NAM solution, if taken literally, suggests strong and perhaps
violent tornadoes will be possible over parts of MS, AL, and GA.
However, this solution is much slower with the dryline than other
models, and may be overdone with instability and low-level shear.
Using the preferred ECWMF solution."

 

[Weatherphreak]

It’s odd to me how far south these systems are trending. Usually March is when South Mississippi and Bama get there’s and by mid to late April it’s Tennessee Valley, North Mississippi, Arkansas and starting to trend toward the plains.

 

[Kory]

The -AO/NAO burst helped shift the storm track south.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Beginning to think the storm track will never nudge north to midsouth region

 

[warneagle]

I guess this is the opposite of the zero-population warnings that pop up in West Texas.

 

[KoD]

I guess this is the opposite of the zero-population warnings that pop up in West Texas.

More people than in the whole state of Alabama

 

[warneagle]

I'm gonna go put my life savings into Safelight stock because I think some windshields are gonna get busted by this one.

 

[SilentShadow87]

I can't seem to find this on any official weather sites, but Washington Post is reporting that there was another EF4 tornado in Mississippi on Sunday. If true that would mean this year now has had the most violent tornadoes since 2015 (which also had 4 total).

 

[pohnpei]

I can't seem to find this on any official weather sites, but Washington Post is reporting that there was another EF4 tornado in Mississippi on Sunday. If true that would mean this year now has had the most violent tornadoes since 2015 (which also had 4 total).

2015 had 3:rochelle 4/9 holly springs 12/23 rowlett 12/26

 

[Brice]

There was only 3 EF4's in 2015

 

[SilentShadow87]

2015 had 3:rochelle 4/9 holly springs 12/23 rowlett 12/26

There was also another one that hit the Venice area on 7/8. You're right that there were only three in the US. I was talking worldwide.

 

[Brice]

He must've been talking worldwide, my mistake.

 

[Bevo]

Here is something interesting to note...
While I took this data from Wikipedia and it shouldn’t completely be taken at face value, they’ve been logging the number of tornadoes in 2020 on their Tornadoes of 2020 page, broken down by month and rating: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_2020
The page claims there have been 405 tornadoes and 74 deaths attributed to these tornadoes so far.

Of note, 87 tornadoes in 2020 so far have been strong to violent (EF2-EF4). This is roughly 21.5% of all tornadoes spawned, with this approximate breakdown:
EF2: 66 (16.3%)
EF3: 17 (4.2%)
EF4: 4 (1%)

if someone knows a more reliable source to crosscheck with and verify that would be ideal...but interesting looking at the numbers at this point in time. Definitely a year of “above average” activity, and definitely one of the deadliest years in recent times.

 

[Brice]

Keep an eye out next week as we have a jet stream already showing high amounts of instability and moisture for Texas and Oklahoma on Tuesday-Wednesday.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Keep an eye out next week as we have a jet stream already showing high amounts of instability and moisture for Texas and Oklahoma on Tuesday-Wednesday.

Interested Tuesday night for west tennessee area ... spc already talking bout putting a 30 percent risk area already by morning update ... wind fields off euro would support some significant tornado risk southern plains to lower and mid ms valley regions

 

[Kory]

Tuesday but really into Wednesday is being honed in by models. UKMET has a solid environment for severe wx Wednesday across MS/AL/TN.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Surprised at the quietness on next weeks system ... trends r getting to be problem late Tuesday .... don’t be suprise see spc pop a 30 percent area soon

 

[Brice]

Surprised at the quietness on next weeks system ... trends r getting to be problem late Tuesday .... don’t be suprise see spc pop a 30 percent area soon

They must have very high confidence.