Severe Weather 2020

[tennessee storm chaser]

Are you referencing the 4/21-4/24 system? I was just about to ask the pros for input about this. Another system around the 28th looks interesting.

Mid. Next week I was talking bout

 

[Kory]

There is going to be multiple opportunities for severe wx over the next 2-3 weeks. Looks like the last hurrah so to say for severe weather for us in the Southeast.

 

[Shakespeare2016]

The Bassfield tornado in JAN area was over 2 miles wide per twitter.

 

[Brice]

I'm guessing the plains will see it first? Correct?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The 12z run of the EURO and the recent trend towards it from the GFS (18z and 00z runs) sure do amplify the significance of the threat Sunday into Monday.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

SPC in with 30% zone for Sunday, similar area as initial outlook for this past Saturday.

 

[Gawxnative]

SPC in with 30% zone for Sunday, similar area as initial outlook for this past Saturday.

Yep.. Bit further south, but thinking time to start the thread

 

[Kory]

This is weekend isn't enough...we have another upcoming threat next week. Already highlighted by the CPC.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Models are showing a substantial severe weather event next Wednesday/Thursday.

Here is a loop of the most recent GFS ensembles for the period.

 

[Bevo]

That Ensemble 11 is gonna be a YIKES from me!
GFS has the storms rolling into TX much earlier in the day (between 1 AM - 1 PM Wednesday) but Euro has them beginning around 1 PM.
There's still some pretty big differences between the models with how much shear will be in place and with the timing though, seeing as we're still several days out. I'm sure once we get through the next couple of days and models begin to resolve more eyes will be on this one.

 

[Kory]

Smaller threat Wednesday night/Thursday morning, but quality moisture return just isn't there. We'll have to see beyond that as things look quieter than longer range stuff than it originally looked.

 

[Bevo]

New SPC Day 3 outlook outlines a hatched sig severe for a swath of north to central Texas.

...Discussion...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains
eastward across the Gulf Coast states, with a broad area of
west/southwest 50-60 kt midlevel winds. At the surface, a weak area
of low pressure will move from OK during the day into AR, with a
front surging east across northern TX and the ArkLaTex. A dryline
will punch east across TX, except for Deep South TX where it will
become stationary.

East of the dryline, southerly winds will result in moisture
recovery over much of eastern TX during the day with mid to upper
60s F dewpoints common, then across LA and southern MS overnight.
The rapid advection of moisture into a relatively cool air mass over
the Southeast will result in widespread clouds, which will inhibit
heating except near the dryline (near I-35 in TX and OK).

The greatest threat of severe storms, including damaging hail, will
be near this dryline where storms will have access to stronger
heating. Despite a pronounced veer/back signal in the low-level wind
profile, strong deep-layer shear will support sustained cells,
perhaps a few supercells.

Numerous storms will persist overnight as they move into the lower
MS Valley, but the boundary layer, although moistening, will be
relatively cool. Thus, despite large SRH, it is unclear how much of
a tornado threat there will be. More likely, an MCS will produce
areas of wind damage.

Hatched area may be picking up on a damaging wind/hail risk as per NWS Fort Worth's thinking, though we will have to wait until tomorrow to see how the probabilities per hazard fall.

 

[Equus]

Models seem to have uptrended just a little for Thursday's threat, though only the NAM shows impressive thermos so certainly no guarantee yet. GFS and Euro both say tornado threat in whatever warm sector we manage to get; NAM is painting destruction and despair as expected though with funky wind profiles in some places. It's definitely a questionable outlier but insists on nearly 4,000 j/kg SBCAPE in east AL Thursday evening. GFS also starting to be onboard with increasing thermos over E AL/GA. We go from massive shear and no instability west of AL to increasingly impressive thermo but veered and weakening wind profiles to the east. Might be worth a thread though if we go Slight on the D3 tonight.

 

[andyhb]

Big difference with that run of the NAM is that it slowed the trough considerably and allowed more time for the wave to amplify. Watch out if that becomes commonplace amongst guidance.

 

[Equus]

GFS is also very slightly onboard the slowing trend, but still wanna see guidance much more in agreement; needless to say the potential has risen a little. If no one else does I'll start a thread in the morning if we get thrown in a Slight

 

[andyhb]

Well this can’t be good...

 

[Bama Ravens]

BMX also mentioned in their AFD that there is another potential threat next Sunday/Sunday night.

 

[Brice]

BMX also mentioned in their AFD that there is another potential threat next Sunday/Sunday night.

Where at?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Big difference with that run of the NAM is that it slowed the trough considerably and allowed more time for the wave to amplify. Watch out if that becomes commonplace amongst guidance.

GFS ensembles trends are slowing it.

 

[amp1998]

Where at?

BMX is Birmingham's CWA, so for at least Central Alabama.