Severe Weather 2020

[Bevo]

And the CIPS analog is based off the GEFS, which is by far the least threatening model. European guidance is downright ugly.

let’s hope the GEFS is what we end up getting in that case (sorry to the chasers out there) though it will be interesting to see if the SPC puts risk areas in the 4-8 day period tomorrow

 

[Timhsv]

Someone might as well start a new severe thread. John just posted this on FB about an hour ago. Also Brett has also indicated substantial threat if the mesoscale aligns up properly with such a deep surface low/position.
Possible double jet structures with such a thermo/Kinematic sounding profiles suggest a dangerous tornado setup may unfold.

Also:
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
320 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Edited for Sunday



Confidence is increasing in at least some degree of severe
weather potential, however uncertainty remains with regards to
moisture return. Several members of guidance (GFS/CMC) struggle to
advect rich boundary layer moisture with warm frontal convection
remaining anchored along the coastal baroclinic zone and
inhibiting poleward moisture transport. On the other hand, other
guidance (ECMWF/UKMET/ICON) brings upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints
as far north as the Hwy 82 corridor Sunday morning with a
moderately unstable and highly sheared warm sector. IF this later
scenario is realized it would support the potential for a
significant severe weather episode on Sunday. If run-to-run model
consistency remains, at least some portion of the area will likely
need to be outlooked for severe weather in the HWO/graphics, and
as such the reader is strongly encouraged to check subsequent
forecast updates throughout the week and into the weekend. /TW/

 

[Mike S]

Most of the first half of April looks dead severe weather wise, may continue beyond that too.

I'm quoting this not to call andyhb out, but because a lot of us thought the same thing just a few days ago. I suppose the last couple days illustrates the lack of data we are getting over the Pacific due to cut backs in air travel.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I'm quoting this not to call andyhb out, but because a lot of us thought the same thing just a few days ago. I suppose the last couple days illustrates the lack of data we are getting over the Pacific due to cut backs in air travel.

agree with you mike, lack data has hurt us forecasting... already another potent system on the horizon for perhaps next weekend... but is it reliable? we don't know

 

[Kory]

Certainly not our last threat in my opinion. MJO, as I mentioned in an earlier post, is strengthening over the Indian Ocean as we speak. AAM looks to decrease per the CFS. Perhaps one or even two more chances at severe weather between next weekend and the end of the month. The CFS is progging two specific threats in that range, but we've seen abysmal model consistency in the medium to long range.

 

[Kory]

May need to keep an eye next Saturday/Sunday. Low amplitude flow with a well established warm sector ahead of the trough.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

This weekend and mid to late next week are period candidates for severe weather.

 

[Brice]

I can't imagine what May could be like, we've already had at least two EF4's at this point last year, we only had one at this time.

 

[jmills]

Definitely need to watch the middle of next week. The CFS, GFS, and Euro are all showing a broad short wave sliding east with a warm, moist air mass out ahead of it.

 

[Brice]

Definitely need to watch the middle of next week. The CFS, GFS, and Euro are all showing a broad short wave sliding east with a warm, moist air mass out ahead of it.

Does it appear to look significant?

 

[Kory]

We will likely have a lower end threat this weekend, but these low amplitude flow events can be tricky. Another potent warm sector (1000-1500 J/KG cape) will be accompanying it per the Euro and Ukmet (the GFS is lost per usual). But, the upper-level dynamics look much weaker.

Middle of next week has potential too, but with model accuracy in a downturn, I'll hold off on that one. None look particularly high end at this time...

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Definitely need to watch the middle of next week. The CFS, GFS, and Euro are all showing a broad short wave sliding east with a warm, moist air mass out ahead of it.

next week got my attention for sure...

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Definitely need to watch the middle of next week. The CFS, GFS, and Euro are all showing a broad short wave sliding east with a warm, moist air mass out ahead of it.

GFS ensembles are showing great support for a high end event.

 

[Kory]

John is a great follow if you're looking for subseasonal forecast stuff. He's noticing a lot of the same stuff I am with regards to the MJO/GWO creating a potentially (not a slam dunk forecast, but when is it ever) active close to April and early May.

 

[Brice]

Im throwing one more question, does the middle of next week into late April call for a potential tornado Outbreak?

 

[jmills]

Im throwing one more question, does the middle of next week into late April call for a potential tornado Outbreak?

Way, way too early to say anything regarding that.

 

[Brice]

Way, way too early to say anything regarding that.

Okay, so we'll have to wait for a few days then. I'm just hyped up for this 2nd half of April into May as many of y'all are too

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Gfs is just plain nasty next week

 

[Weatherphreak]

Gfs is just plain nasty next week

Are you referencing the 4/21-4/24 system? I was just about to ask the pros for input about this. Another system around the 28th looks interesting.

 

[MichelleH]

At this point, I'm just ready for Spring to be over.