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Severe Weather 2020

This severe weather season will be?

  • Much Above Average

    Votes: 4 9.3%

  • Above Average

    Votes: 26 60.5%

  • Average

    Votes: 6 14.0%

  • Below Average

    Votes: 5 11.6%

  • Much Below Average

    Votes: 2 4.7%
  • Total voters
    43
  • Poll closed .
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4 years ago this past weekend I was in Greensburg, Ks. It is a tiny town, but one thing that stuck out was how new it was with some scattered empty lots that likely held something prior to the tornado and was never rebuilt.

I had time to kill so after lunch I drove over to Dodge City just to see the town before heading back down into Oklahoma where we were staying. About three weeks later Dodge City was hit by a large tornado. I believe our own @Matt Grantham chased that one.
 
I wonder what will happen after Mid-May. There will be some tornado outbreaks. But, I just have a bad feeling we will have a May, 20th 2019 all over or at least close to it and instead, the stout cap breaking. I know, it's way too early but I just have that feel that we will have something big in May.
 
Brice said:
I wonder what will happen after Mid-May. There will be some tornado outbreaks. But, I just have a bad feeling we will have a May, 20th 2019 all over or at least close to it and instead, the stout cap breaking. I know, it's way too early but I just have that feel that we will have something big in May.
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Weather twitter has been talking about pattern shifts mid-May, but I think at this point it's just too early to tell. At least, that's what I try to reassure myself.
 
A pattern shift looks plausible but forecasting them in this regime can be tricky. Climatically it makes sense but its been getting pushed back a little bit on models recently. Just have to wait and see.

Regardless, any pattern shift that does occur is not one that I would expect to bring additional (tornadic) severe weather to Dixie. I'd expect this one to stay confined to the plains and more of a summertime pattern to establish itself here, with afternoon/evening complexes and diurnal storms being more common.
 
Could the May severe weather affect the southeast, or are we talking more about the plains.
 
MattW said:
Could the May severe weather affect the southeast, or are we talking more about the plains.
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Generally the focus shifts to the plains during May.

That said with the way the pattern has been this year I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the threats continue for a little bit other side of this winter-snap.
 
MattW said:
Could the May severe weather affect the southeast, or are we talking more about the plains.
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There have been numerous tornado outbreaks in the southeast in May. The first Anderson Hills tornado that hit north of Huntsville was mid May. It was EF3-EF4. You do start to see a shift to more outbreaks in the Plains and by June it starts to shift to the northern plains/southern Canada.
 
Mainly a damaging wind threat for wednesday even though the dry line could produce a couple of supercells till all of the storms come together to form an MCS. Thursday doesn't seem to be as intense as Wednesday's forecast though, there still will be a threat and that's the same story for Friday.


This was made just yesterday.
https://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/
 
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