Severe Weather 2020 (2 Viewers)

This severe weather season will be?

  • Much Above Average

    Votes: 4 9.3%
  • Above Average

    Votes: 26 60.5%
  • Average

    Votes: 6 14.0%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 5 11.6%
  • Much Below Average

    Votes: 2 4.7%

  • Total voters
    43
  • Poll closed .

Mike S

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4 years ago this past weekend I was in Greensburg, Ks. It is a tiny town, but one thing that stuck out was how new it was with some scattered empty lots that likely held something prior to the tornado and was never rebuilt.

I had time to kill so after lunch I drove over to Dodge City just to see the town before heading back down into Oklahoma where we were staying. About three weeks later Dodge City was hit by a large tornado. I believe our own @Matt Grantham chased that one.
 

Brice

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Virginia
I wonder what will happen after Mid-May. There will be some tornado outbreaks. But, I just have a bad feeling we will have a May, 20th 2019 all over or at least close to it and instead, the stout cap breaking. I know, it's way too early but I just have that feel that we will have something big in May.
 

Bevo

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Dallas, TX
I wonder what will happen after Mid-May. There will be some tornado outbreaks. But, I just have a bad feeling we will have a May, 20th 2019 all over or at least close to it and instead, the stout cap breaking. I know, it's way too early but I just have that feel that we will have something big in May.
Weather twitter has been talking about pattern shifts mid-May, but I think at this point it's just too early to tell. At least, that's what I try to reassure myself.
 

rolltide_130

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Harvest, Alabama
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A pattern shift looks plausible but forecasting them in this regime can be tricky. Climatically it makes sense but its been getting pushed back a little bit on models recently. Just have to wait and see.

Regardless, any pattern shift that does occur is not one that I would expect to bring additional (tornadic) severe weather to Dixie. I'd expect this one to stay confined to the plains and more of a summertime pattern to establish itself here, with afternoon/evening complexes and diurnal storms being more common.
 

MattW

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Decatur, GA
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Could the May severe weather affect the southeast, or are we talking more about the plains.
 

Tyler Penland

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Blowing Rock, NC; Elevation 3,575ft
Could the May severe weather affect the southeast, or are we talking more about the plains.
Generally the focus shifts to the plains during May.

That said with the way the pattern has been this year I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the threats continue for a little bit other side of this winter-snap.
 

Weatherphreak

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142
Location
Huntsville
Could the May severe weather affect the southeast, or are we talking more about the plains.
There have been numerous tornado outbreaks in the southeast in May. The first Anderson Hills tornado that hit north of Huntsville was mid May. It was EF3-EF4. You do start to see a shift to more outbreaks in the Plains and by June it starts to shift to the northern plains/southern Canada.
 

Brice

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182
Location
Virginia
Higher than average rainfall in the plains, that could be mean higher than average severe weather for the plains too.
 

Brice

Member
Messages
182
Location
Virginia
Mainly a damaging wind threat for wednesday even though the dry line could produce a couple of supercells till all of the storms come together to form an MCS. Thursday doesn't seem to be as intense as Wednesday's forecast though, there still will be a threat and that's the same story for Friday.


This was made just yesterday.
https://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/
 

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