...DISCUSSION...
A somewhat more active severe weather pattern is expected this
weekend into early next week, though predictability concerns
preclude the delineation of any 15% probability areas with this
outlook.
...D4/Saturday-D5/Sunday: Central/southern Plains into the mid-MS
Valley ...
On D4/Saturday, a convectively-reinforced frontal boundary is
expected to extend from somewhere across OK/southern KS into
portions of the mid-MS Valley. Renewed thunderstorm development will
be possible in the vicinity of this boundary Saturday afternoon as a
shortwave trough moves eastward out of the Plains. Wind profiles may
be sufficient to support some organized severe threat with this
activity into Saturday evening.
For D5/Sunday, northwesterly flow is forecast to become established
over the Plains as an upper ridge builds over the West. Depending on
the magnitude of low-level moisture return, this pattern would favor
development of strong thunderstorms over the High Plains Sunday
afternoon, potentially spreading southeastward as an MCS into a
broader portion of the central/southern Plains Sunday night.
...D6/Monday-D8/Wednesday...
Extended-range guidance is in generally good agreement maintaining a
western ridge and eastern trough into early next week, though spread
increases with time regarding the amplitude of these features and
the timing of any smaller-scale features embedded within the
longwave pattern. Northwesterly flow severe events would remain
possible in this pattern anywhere from the Plains/Midwest to the
Southeast, though predictability is much too low to specify timing
and location of any particular threats at this point.