A somewhat more active severe weather pattern is expected this
weekend into early next week, though predictability concerns
preclude the delineation of any 15% probability areas with this
...D4/Saturday-D5/Sunday: Central/southern Plains into the mid-MS
On D4/Saturday, a convectively-reinforced frontal boundary is
expected to extend from somewhere across OK/southern KS into
portions of the mid-MS Valley. Renewed thunderstorm development will
be possible in the vicinity of this boundary Saturday afternoon as a
shortwave trough moves eastward out of the Plains. Wind profiles may
be sufficient to support some organized severe threat with this
activity into Saturday evening.
For D5/Sunday, northwesterly flow is forecast to become established
over the Plains as an upper ridge builds over the West. Depending on
the magnitude of low-level moisture return, this pattern would favor
development of strong thunderstorms over the High Plains Sunday
afternoon, potentially spreading southeastward as an MCS into a
broader portion of the central/southern Plains Sunday night.
Extended-range guidance is in generally good agreement maintaining a
western ridge and eastern trough into early next week, though spread
increases with time regarding the amplitude of these features and
the timing of any smaller-scale features embedded within the
longwave pattern. Northwesterly flow severe events would remain
possible in this pattern anywhere from the Plains/Midwest to the
Southeast, though predictability is much too low to specify timing
and location of any particular threats at this point.
Rough day for MOB office right now. Tornado warning up for the city of Mobile as a line approaches from the west, and I guess they are distracted by that and not looking at the rest of the line. Two seperate TDSs have popped up SE of Lucedale, MS with no tornado warning for them. The stronger of which has showed up on 5 consecutive scans now, still no tornado warning.
Edit: circulations appeared to have weakened on the last scan or two, but two pretty obvious tornadoes were missed.
The Tor warnings are up now for the Mobile area (3 of them). I still don't get what "Radar Confirmed" means. CC related debris would seem to be the only way to 'confirm' a tornado by radar only.