The volatile environment ahead of the squall line makes me nervous...none of the models are showing development occurring directly ahead of the line (save for the most northeastern parts in AK/OK) but the environment in and around the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex seems very conducive to tornadoes should something pop up. I'm talking 600+ SRH and 3500+ CAPE around 04z. Looking at the 2% tor SPC risk at the current moment makes me feel a bit better since they don't seem to have higher confidence in development, but still...
Wednesday through Monday.
Due to a stronger than expected cold pool from early morning
storms to our west, the severe weather threat for Wednesday
afternoon now appears that it may not materialize in the same
fashion as previously expected. A weakened band of convection
should enter west Alabama around 6 AM with MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
possible in a small corridor ahead of the line. Isolated strong
to marginally severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out as this band
moves across the forecast area through the morning. There is
little evidence pointing toward restrengthening of the line, but
daytime heating could help maintain a chance of marginally severe
gusts across our eastern counties during the afternoon. For
consistency and to avoid wholesale changes, a Marginal Risk will
be kept in our forecast but only for isolated damaging winds.
Additional showers or perhaps a few thunderstorms could develop in
the afternoon and evening as strong PVA and mid-level cold
advection occurs from the northwest. This potential is unclear,
but gusty winds might be possible with any such convection.