Severe WX March 27-30th, 2018 - Localized Flooding/Slight Severe Potential (1 Viewer)

JP Dice

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Great to have you back around, JP. Fox 6 is my go to station to stream up here in Huntsville when I am watching Birmingham weather.

Social media seems to be a necessary evil for on camera meteorologists. It is expected of you and is a great way to communicate information but there is always going to be some who are going to have something negative to say.
Thanks so much! Glad to have you watching. I cut my severe weather teeth in Huntsville and learned an incredible amount about radar and severe weather while working at WHNT.
 
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No real change in thinking...Looking over last night's model runs and this morning's seem to keep pointing to a rather low end event in regards to severe weather. Upper levels have a fair amount of shear question is does it get down to the surface and is the moisture transport further north and quicker along with LP placement... Getting into the short range models wheel house now that may shed more light but current thinking is primarily a wind threat with the main line/cold front along with isolated tornado over central Alabama. Which I think is in line with most on here's thinking ATM.

... Carry on


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Kory

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GFS is showing some "S" shaped hodographs in response to some backing of the winds between 500 and 700mbs. Lapse rates have improved marginally, but this isn't looking like a high end thermo event....not that we need raging thermos for severe wx.
 
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KoD

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No real change in thinking...Looking over last night's model runs and this morning's seem to keep pointing to a rather low end event in regards to severe weather. Upper levels have a fair amount of shear question is does it get down to the surface and is the moisture transport further north and quicker along with LP placement... Getting into the short range models wheel house now that may shed more light but current thinking is primarily a wind threat with the main line/cold front along with isolated tornado over central Alabama. Which I think is in line with most on here's thinking ATM.

... Carry on


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Agree. With the meager lapse rates and LP trajectory/depth, not seeing much beyond a usual spring time weather event with a slight risk for damaging winds or spin-ups in south central MS & central AL primarily d/t elevated deep layer shear. Rainfall forecast totals have dropped precipitously as well, making the flooding risk very localized and not particularly substantial.
I'll certainly be happy to hear some relaxing heavy rain and thunder during this time of year, and not be worked up about semi-discrete supercells like last week.

Thread title modified to reflect these trends. Will keep an eye on things as we still have days to go for changes. We all know mother nature has the final say.
 

Austin Dawg

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Looks like we have a slight potential. This time of year we usually get hail storms or heavy rain/flash flooding out of these kinds of systems.

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rolltide_130

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NAM and 3km NAM slowing this down a little bit to where it's more of a daytime threat Thursday. Both wind shear and thermo profiles are very, very marginal however as of now..
 

rolltide_130

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Back west towards the Arklamiss today will bear a close watch as well. 3km NAM is painting a potentially volatile picture for there this afternoon and evening. Managed to pull some PDS soundings as well but they appeared to be contaminated.

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Central Alabama soundings this morning a little more concerning both the NAM and GFS are now beginning to back the surface winds increasing the threat for tornados. See how future runs say about this

... Carry on


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Kory

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Flow looks pretty parallel to the boundary, which would favor upstream propagation into a QLCS. I think any tornado threat will be within a squall line with discrete convection ahead kept to a minimum.
 

StormStalker

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
636 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

MSC053-125-151-163-290000-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180329T0000Z/
Washington MS-Yazoo MS-Humphreys MS-Sharkey MS-
636 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN YAZOO...HUMPHREYS AND
NORTHEASTERN SHARKEY COUNTIES...


At 635 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles northeast of Holly Bluff, or 13 miles west of
Yazoo City, moving northeast at 45 mph.
 
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Hard to pick out a clear TDS from all the ground clutter, but when you get a hook protruding out the front of a QLCS like that, there's a good chance of a spin-up.
 

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Always have to watch and see if MCS along the coast robs the moisture transport northward. Just have to watch and see but if enough forcing can still see isolated svr and quick spin ups as well


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Mid level cloud deck already clearing out in East AL sun is out. Will be interesting to see how it goes later today esp east of I-65


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