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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 11/5-11/7

With this event narrowing in on the time expectancy, do we still expect a moderate risk to be issued? Seems like strong wording to still be at enhanced.
 
Kory said:
HRRR continues to show supercells breaking out across MS/TN tomorrow afternoon. They progress eastward into AL after dark. It is showing some convection developing in the free warm sector ahead of the main line.
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How well did the HRRR perform with the event last week?
 
Honestly what the HRRR is showing up to hour 26 is early convection too far ahead of the system. Dew points that need to be 64 or higher are further south than I would like to see. This is also the 36 hour HRRR with low reliability so YMMV
 
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I thought the HRRR was a lil quick this morning at initialization on 1 run, i can't remember which run I compared being hourly. It also was just slightly higher with the dewpoints, but nothing i'd consider noteable in the now, but long term????? it is also alone in bringing the trough as far south as it has. I do think its holding on to the initial signal that originally brought us all to the thread, so the consitency is there. So its certainly shouldn't be discounted.. and just to make clear I'm far from a met. Just a self taught weather weenie, so every event is a new learning experience for me. The more knowledgeable here are welcome to correct me if im wrong.
 
Frogge said:
Honestly what the HRRR is showing up to hour 26 is early convection too far ahead of the system. Dew points that need to be 64 or higher are further south than I would like to see. This is also the 36 hour HRRR with low reliability so YMMV
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We get pretty rapid destabilization with the 40-50 kt LLJ advecting mid to upper 60s dews later in the afternoon. Those storms that develop in the evening over North MS will be rooted at the surface.
 
Kory said:
We get pretty rapid destabilization with the 40-50 kt LLJ advecting mid to upper 60s dews later in the afternoon. Those storms that develop in the evening over North MS will be rooted at the surface.
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I agree, if we can get the conveyor belt south enough & pumping long enough! Not out of the question so long as there's no capping that far ahead of the front.
 
Frogge said:
Honestly what the HRRR is showing up to hour 26 is early convection too far ahead of the system. Dew points that need to be 64 or higher are further south than I would like to see. This is also the 36 hour HRRR with low reliability so YMMV
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not sure if we can get dewpoint 64 here in tennessee tomorrow... depending no junk in the way early before noon... this event may have to depend mainly on shear... just hope it isnt to strong were it just rip nice cells apart thats trying to root to ground... i have seen that be the case before, especially these cool season setups....
 
18z NAM has started to pickup on the isolated supercell idea again ahead of the line. Found a couple of PDS Tor soundings in the mix, which has been hard to come by since early this morning.

Man weather is the best drama series out there always new twist and turns, keeps u coming back.
Kory - replies "told ya so"
 
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Took a little nap, looked over the 36 hour HRRR and the NAM 3km again. To me the risk for a violent tornado has dropped pretty low. With that said low CAPE high shear events in the fall have produced some nasty storms in our region's past so by no means drop your guard. But this does not look like an event that the entire region will remember for years as it looked like just two days ago.
 
Frogge said:
Took a little nap, looked over the 36 hour HRRR and the NAM 3km again. To me the risk for a violent tornado has dropped pretty low. With that said low CAPE high shear events in the fall have produced some nasty storms in our region's past so by no means drop your guard. But this does not look like an event that the entire region will remember for years as it looked like just two days ago.
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Why am I not surprised by that ....lol what’s new
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Why am I not surprised by that ....lol what’s new
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I bet they keep the hatched area in the day 1 tomorrow moringing and will assume there were be a few dozen tornado warnings when the system moves through. Just not convinced on a moderate risk or any kind of PDS style situation others have been hinting at.
 
Frogge said:
I bet they keep the hatched area in the day 1 tomorrow moringing and will assume there were be a few dozen tornado warnings when the system moves through. Just not convinced on a moderate risk or any kind of PDS style situation others have been hinting at.
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I agree, it's just not the same setup showing from Friday. Just to repeat, definately not worth taking your guard down. It only takes 1 tornado over your house or a loved ones to make a PDS situation for you!
 
WAFF just put out their timeline and they are starting at 11 PM on Monday with it finishing at 4 AM on Tuesday Morning.
 
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