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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 11/5-11/7

They are taking quite a long time getting this new SPC outlook out
 
The wording is quite strong for a enhanced risk...
 

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I was a bit surprised that they had removed the sigtor again. I guess I haven't had time to do any model watching this morning though.
 
HRRR still showing some pretty menacing cells in North MS and West TN prior to congealing into a QLCS, which also retains ample potential for embedded rotation as it tracks east through TN/N AL.
This will be an HRRR performance review for me.
 
I think this might be the best way to sum things up… If there is enough instability that makes it north and we have cells out of head of the mainline then we are going to have big problems. It really does come down to being that simple.
 
Xenesthis said:
I think this might be the best way to sum things up… If there is enough instability that makes it north and we have cells out of head of the mainline then we are going to have big problems. It really does come down to being that simple.
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That's a good way to describe it.

The new shortwave is well to the north..that is what is pulling everything north. Will be watching to see if that new shortwave begins further south...see the animation below....watch for the yellow. If that starts further south and earlier..the threat will expand.
 

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Richardjacks said:
That's a good way to describe it.

The new shortwave is well to the north..that is what is pulling everything north. Will be watching to see if that new shortwave begins further south...see the animation below....watch for the yellow. If that starts further south and earlier..the threat will expand.
Click to expand...
Around what time should be know that answer? How much lead time?
 
Richardjacks said:
The scenario I described is unlikely and we would begin to see a change this morning. I think the SPC has a good handle on things...but if something were to change- it would have to happen very soon.
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Gotcha... I guess the main thing I will be curious to see is if the models are underdoing the CAPE
 
12z nam has the upper jet closer to Alabama/slightly further south, the next few frames are super important.
500wh.conus.png
 
Richardjacks said:
12z nam has the jet pulling away at 3am...boy that is close for say the I59 corridor, CAPE is rapidly building then.
500wh.conus.png
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How would you feel about east of Murfreesboro by 40 miles? I am further north then AL that’s why I am asking
 
So the crapvection to this point is non-existent. Watch for cloud breaks because if this happens things will change for the target area
 
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