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Severe WX Severe Weather Event April 13-14, 2019

Kory said:
I think the biggest caveat is the capping for SETX and Western LA. Will there be enough forcing to break it in time or will be best dynamics have shifted NE from there before storms get going.
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My concern is more too much convection/upscale growth versus none at all. That cap will break, I don't have much doubt about that.
 
For West Central AL & North GA Folks.... The 18z NAM run at 21z on Sun appears to be pretty intense in our area. This run looks much more volatile than earlier runs. Simulated radar isn't showing a bunch of discrete cells, but the the cluster shows precip streaks coming across an area with TOR soundings. What are we lacking here for the real possibility of some tornadic storms? Not sure if this sounding shows surface based or not. It near I-20 at the AL-GA line. I guess this is also considered "Skinny CAPE" which isn't ideal either.

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GA Stormchaser said:
For West Central AL & North GA Folks.... The 18z NAM run at 21z on Sun appears to be pretty intense in our area. This run looks much more volatile than earlier runs. Simulated radar isn't showing a bunch of discrete cells, but the the cluster shows precip streaks coming across an area with TOR soundings. What are we lacking here for the real possibility of some tornadic storms? Not sure if this sounding shows surface based or not. It near I-20 at the AL-GA line. I guess this is also considered "Skinny CAPE" which isn't ideal either.

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Here is also what I notice with the 18z run:
The surface low begins to deepen again as it moves into NW Al and north of there early Sunday, the first squall line is rapidly moving east..and could be just be a group of supercells....I think the environment could be even more volatile than shown. The 18z nam causes me more concern for north and central alabama than any other model run. I think there will be a couple of long tracked strong tornadoes if the 18z verifies.
 
Richardjacks said:
Here is also what I notice with the 18z run:
The surface low begins to deepen again as it moves into NW Al and north of there early Sunday, the first squall line is rapidly moving east..and could be just be a group of supercells....I think the environment could be even more volatile than shown. The 18z nam causes me more concern for north and central alabama than any other model run. I think there will be a couple of long tracked strong tornadoes if the 18z verifies.
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One other point, I was thinking that the surface dewpoints may lag a bit overnight for north/central into Saturday due to winds being more out of the SSE, Than S...but looking at the 4k nam, Td's are around 70 in south Georgia...so CAPE is probably underplayed by the Nam.
 
Richardjacks said:
One other point, I was thinking that the surface dewpoints may lag a bit overnight for north/central into Saturday due to winds being more out of the SSE, Than S...but looking at the 4k nam, Td's are around 70 in south Georgia...so CAPE is probably underplayed by the Nam.
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So is this totally an event that will remain south of TN?
 
That is the farthest in advance I've ever seen that SREF sig-tor ingredients pop a 90, also does it for both 21z and 00z.

As for the 00z NAM/NAM 3 km, boy I sure hope people in that area are prepared for this since this is certainly an upper tier risk. There's a very real possibility this could be like 4/2/17, except over a larger expanse of real estate for LA. Seems like there will be multiple bands of storms across S AR and LA, then marching eastward overnight through MS and into W AL.
 
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