Severe WX Severe Weather Event April 13-14, 2019

[warneagle]

SPC has a 15% area on D5 (Sunday) for a chunk of Georgia, but the GFS doesn't have a lot of good ingredients showing. What am I missing? Is that just too far out for the GFS?

It’s probably underestimating the thermodynamics. The GFS does that at longer range sometimes.

 

[Austin Dawg]

PDS TOR soundings abound across E. TX and most of LA on both NAM and GFS 06Z runs valid for 18Z Saturday, which as as far out as they go. No reason to think 12Z won't be similar.

I hope it doesn't edge back to the west. I hope it isn't nearly as bad as it looks.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I'm seeing quite a lot of veer-back all of a sudden in the 18Z NAM soundings for Saturday afternoon. Everything up to 700mb looks great but above that winds back more to the south again.

 

[Kory]

NAM is bringing in the storms in AL a bit slower...around day break Sunday.

Storm mode definitely has a cellular component.

 

[MattPetrulli]

00z NAM is even more intense than its previous runs and doubles down on a significant tornado outbreak.
Sounding from open warm sector at 21z, just wow.

I know that there are a lot of impressive parameters in here and such, but man those LCLs are gonna mean some ground scrapers with most mesocyclones.

 

[Kory]

SREF is also slower...daybreak and even later before storms enter Alabama. Main trough is trending to wrap up a bit sooner, meaning slower speed as it heads east.

 

[TXTornado]

We got a day 3 enhanced

...East Texas through western Alabama...
Models indicate ongoing convection at the start of the period across
north Texas, which may pose a risk for hail given steep mid-level
lapse rates in that area. Through the day, storms will gradually
become more widespread across Arkansas and Louisiana through midday
and toward evening. Weak to moderate buoyancy, strong deep shear,
and backed low-level winds will favor all modes of severe, with
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts being the primary threats.
Particularly concerning is the hint in nearly all guidance that
convection will develop within the free warm sector well removed
from any fronts during peak heating hours. This scenario would
likely result in potential for several tornadoes (a few significant)
and damaging wind gusts assuming instability profiles verify as
currently progged. Concerns remain regarding timing of the wave and
subsequent convective development, with an overall westward trend
apparent in convective evolution compared to yesterday's runs. Some
continued disagreement also exists in most recent guidance with
regard to eastward progression of convection. Instability may also
become a limiting factor if too many storms form and result in
unfavorable storm-scale interactions. Nevertheless, a synoptically
evident severe weather episode appears likely to unfold - especially
within the Enhanced Risk area.

 

[seasonsofweather]

 

[TXTornado]

Well, I'm in Dallas so it's to our east but that's a helluva bad area for chasing. Not that I would, but I'm just saying. With how things are going though, I think we may see a high risk by Saturday.

 

[Argus]

Does the 3000 Cape move our way for Sunday afternoon?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Well, I'm in Dallas so it's to our east but that's a helluva bad area for chasing. Not that I would, but I'm just saying. With how things are going though, I think we may see a high risk by Saturday.

If models are underestimating eml... I can see a high risk by Saturday afternoon .... Louisiana parts southern ms...

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The veer-backing with height I mentioned on yesterday's 18Z NAM soundings for Saturday over LA seemed to go away on the 00Z run and then come back a bit on the 06Z run...

 

[Argus]

Does this event evolve into a QLCS for us or does it stay cellular in nature?

 

[Kory]

Does this event evolve into a QLCS for us or does it stay cellular in nature?

I personally think this is a broken line with discrete convection. QPF across the models show this will not be a fully congealed line.

 

[warneagle]

One of the most frequent analogs I’m seeing is dates from early May 2003 which is concerning.

 

[Kory]

Some of the shear is insane. 0-1km SRH 300-400 m2/s2 and 0-3km 400-500 m2/s2. Overlap that with ~1000 J/KG CAPE and a cellular storm mode...

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

One of the most frequent analogs I’m seeing is dates from early May 2003 which is concerning.

Yeah very concerning indeed... cause my hometown Jackson got rocked May 4 2003 with two tornadoes same nite ... one was a ef3 west Madison county ... and the other one was a ef4 went right through heart downtown area... killing 15 that nite.... I got some good shots of that ef4 It was hard see being nite event ... but it was a wedge ....

 

[Xenesthis]

Yeah very concerning indeed... cause my hometown Jackson got rocked May 4 2003 with two tornadoes same nite ... one was a ef3 west Madison county ... and the other one was a ef4 went right through heart downtown area... killing 15 that nite.... I got some good shots of that ef4 It was hard see being nite event ... but it was a wedge ....

What’s the odds this gets up into TN?

 

[Richardjacks]

Some of the shear is insane. 0-1km SRH 300-400 m2/s2 and 0-3km 400-500 m2/s2. Overlap that with ~1000 J/KG CAPE and a cellular storm mode...

Kory, are you speaking about west Alabama or further to the west over LA and MS?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

What’s the odds this gets up into TN?

I wouldn’t let my guard down if I were in southern most part state.. especially. Counties se of Tennessee river especially