Kory
Member
MS/AL region. It looks like things will be capped over much of LA and I don’t think storms will get going until closer to the Mississippi River.
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CheeselandSkies
Member
Always a little disconcerting to see non-contaminated PDS TOR soundings valid for 09Z (4 AM CDT). Still, it's not a guarantee. I recall a setup a couple years ago (forget the exact date off the top of my head) that had a PDS tornado watch valid for parts of the South late at night and had everyone on tenterhooks, but no sustained supercells initiated.
X
Xenesthis
Guest
I am just east of Murfreesboro.... Think I am good to go?
tennessee storm chaser
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As now. Think the semi discrete be south you ... you have to deal with a good line with frontal passage
Yes, it does look capped...and that cap prob extends a little further east until the prefrontal trough/lead vort max arrives...which will determine overall timing of the event. If it is faster, I think there will be more space between it and the front.
MattPetrulli
Member
Assuming you mean the day before the high risk in GA/FL/SC in January 2017. Believe there was a cap problem, but we still had the Adele GA tornado which killed 12 people.
warneagle
Member
That day also had significant VBV issues across part of the warm sector.
Kory
Member
2017 overall had a SE displacement of best parameters. 4/4/17 had that issue too.
Often, veer-back-veer leads to messy and upscale growth in storms.
warneagle
Member
Yeah, there’s still some evidence of VBV at around 700 mb on some of this morning’s forecast soundings. That’s been pretty consistent over the last few runs and is one of the real caveats I see for this event.
Kory
Member
I’m not seeing any real issues across the warm sector once you get into MS/AL region. It’s a bit more unidirectional in the mid levels than you’d like for a supercellular event, but I think mixed storm mode is the best bet right now.
warneagle
Member
Oh, yeah, I was talking about further west in the ENH area. I haven’t looked as closely further east yet.
Kory
Member
NAM continues to slow a touch each and every run....
Also, shows a more disconnect of shear and cape for Alabama..shear is lower once cape finally arrives, but it may be underplayed a bit.
Kory
Member
I think it’s decoupling the boundary layer too much. A later arrival time doesn’t quite make sense with lower instability especially when it’s during the later morning hours vs early morning.
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That's what I am thinking too, wow at the shear.
tennessee storm chaser
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Noticing that also... you think it can be to much shear... it could keep the cells from getting rooted to ground by ripping the structure of them ? I seen that come into play before
Kory
Member
Most guidance as upper 60 dew points to I-20/59 if not a little further north. We won't have instability issues.
TXTornado
Member
Shreveport AFD
Higher confidence in a potentially widespread severe weather event
hinges on the timing of these features aligning during the peak of
afternoon heating as the upper trough will take on an increasingly
negative tilt as it pivots NE directly over the region by late Sat
afternoon into the early evening. The strong forcing combined with
very robust shear profiles along the deepening sfc low warrants
ample cause for concern as it relates to the threat for tornadoes.
The likelihood of some discrete supercells developing during the
afternoon seems like a foregone conclusion with this very favorable
setup. Model progs seem to indicate a gradual transition to a more
linear convective mode later in the event by late afternoon through
the early evening hours. All that said, expect all modes of severe
weather to be in play for the duration of Saturday afternoon and
possibly a bit later. The other concern will be for some localized
flooding where very heavy rainfall could occur with individual cells
as well as training storms. This could lead to some flash flooding
concerns which is why all of the region is also included in a Slight
Risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday. Convection should gradually
diminish through the evening and overnight hours as dry slotting
occurs behind the ejecting upper trough with the cold front exiting
the region by daybreak on Sunday. Expect improving conditions during
Sunday as temperatures will only climb into the 60s for highs.
Higher confidence in a potentially widespread severe weather event
hinges on the timing of these features aligning during the peak of
afternoon heating as the upper trough will take on an increasingly
negative tilt as it pivots NE directly over the region by late Sat
afternoon into the early evening. The strong forcing combined with
very robust shear profiles along the deepening sfc low warrants
ample cause for concern as it relates to the threat for tornadoes.
The likelihood of some discrete supercells developing during the
afternoon seems like a foregone conclusion with this very favorable
setup. Model progs seem to indicate a gradual transition to a more
linear convective mode later in the event by late afternoon through
the early evening hours. All that said, expect all modes of severe
weather to be in play for the duration of Saturday afternoon and
possibly a bit later. The other concern will be for some localized
flooding where very heavy rainfall could occur with individual cells
as well as training storms. This could lead to some flash flooding
concerns which is why all of the region is also included in a Slight
Risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday. Convection should gradually
diminish through the evening and overnight hours as dry slotting
occurs behind the ejecting upper trough with the cold front exiting
the region by daybreak on Sunday. Expect improving conditions during
Sunday as temperatures will only climb into the 60s for highs.
Kory
Member
UKMET is slower...around daybreak before beginning in AL. Again, the NAM looks to be on its own regarding the meager instability.
Yes but dadgum it looks scary for east TX and LA.
