RollTide18
Member
Definitely hoping for some limiting factor to emerge, this state has been through enough already this year.
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pritchlaw
Member
The storms last Saturday night were rough in Hayden, Al. No tornado but winds strong enough to scatter everything all over the yard/porch/road. Very heavy rain for about 15-20 minutes too.
bwalk
Member
Plenty of moist warm air with high 60ish dew points and a vertically sheared trough/vorticity. Enough instability to work with. Plenty of SVR dynamics will be present this weekend.
tennessee storm chaser
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Looking quickly over early diagnosis on 12zgfs.... is it my imagination or does the trough seem to be taking on a more sharper look compared to earlier runs .... if so if... could be more linear nature .... early observation on the latest gfs
NorthGaWeather
Member
12z GFS has the surface low placement a little farther Northwest on this run.
tennessee storm chaser
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Yeah think were starting see slight trend there ... seems trying slow system down just tic again also ....
Kory
Member
With shear vectors oriented WSW/SW, I could definitely see some QLCS component, but it is very supportive of supercells as well. Lots of forcing out ahead of the main boundary.
NWMSGuy
Member
I wonder how long this northwest trend will continue? This could eventually put more of the midsouth in play.
Kory
Can you explain this briefly in somewhat layman's terms and how this can be determined?
Kory
Member
You can look at the surface to 500mb shear vectors. This is what determines storm mode. Generally, for supercells, you want the shear vectors oriented more perpendicular to the boundary (in this case its is N/S). A more westerly/WSW component would favor a cellular storm mode. In this case, it is more WSW/SW, meaning mixed storm mode. But there is a lot of ascent over the warm sector ahead of the main boundary, meaning in this scenario, I'd suspect there would be discrete convection across the warm sector.
Of course, there is still time to work out storm characteristics. Bottom line, Saturday into Sunday looks very stormy.
Kory
Member
Euro holds serve. Major severe weather event overnight for MS/AL.
Equus
Member
Man I hate overnight events. Oh well.
I have so many memories of my little NWS storm warning station going off in the middle of the night when we lived in Mississippi and they were all scary.
Night time is definitely fright time when there is severe weather in Dixie Ally.
Night time is definitely fright time when there is severe weather in Dixie Ally.
tennessee storm chaser
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Yeh aided by the good ole lower level jet ....
Jason Ledbetter
Member
So early morning storms Sunday morning for West GA.
Kory
Member
Probably more toward midday for y'all. I think the models are consolidating on a good time scale here.
Jason Ledbetter
Member
Thank you sir
Might impact The Masters I guess. I know it is just golf but it is a major and will have a ton of people in Augusta.
Last frame of the 18z nam
