gregassagraf
Member
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The continuation of a positive NAO index with the forecast of a negative PNA for an extended time is a teleconnection forecast that largely favors severe weather.
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Reed Timmer predicting weather to go bonkers? You don't say!
I'm not educated enough about severe systems to predict a severe event but it doesn't take a scientist to see that there's might be too much rain accumulated in the coming weeks.Reed loves to overhype things a little too much. I mean the pattern overall the next 2 to 3 maybe 4 weeks favors multiple threats of severe weather. Might end up with higher end flash flooding potential down the road as well.
It's fantasy range again, but this run of the GFS also has another big trough developing in the west and traversing the country around the 18th (06Z run did as well). The model has had its struggles this winter, but it was remarkably consistent on the general timing and placement of this past Saturday's severe threat (although obviously not with crucial details like 3KM CAPE and EHI values).