Severe Weather 2022

[Taylor Campbell]

A thread to discuss the severe weather outlook for year 2022.

 

[KevinH]

A thread to discuss the severe weather outlook for year 2022.

Dang.. you beat me to it lol

 

[KevinH]

Seems like New Years/Eve could have some severe potential based on some things I have read from people. Would a threat during that time (covering 2021 and 2022) go HERE or……?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Seems like New Years/Eve could have some severe potential based on some things I have read from people. Would a threat during that time (covering 2021 and 2022) go HERE or……?

Technically the second system be here . Should be the first 2022 threat .

 

[KevinH]

aaaaaaand SPC JUST highlighted D6 Sat 1/1/22

 

[Clancy]

The 06Z GFS-based CIPS SCP, valid 18Z January 2. The SCP parameter for CIPS is far less aggressive than other parameters like CWASP and rarely shows values above 2-4. Here the maximum value is above 6.

 

[JPWX]

Dewpoint temperatures valid at noon Saturday off the 6z GFS, 00z Canadian, and 00z Euro.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Dewpoint temperatures valid at noon Saturday off the 6z GFS, 00z Canadian, and 00z Euro.

If things come together on this one, I’m afraid Saturday late could be a red day… ceiling appears fairly high for this event . MEG Nws Memphis, already throwing the word outbreak in mornings afd

 

[JPWX]

If things come together on this one, I’m afraid Saturday late could be a red day… ceiling appears fairly high for this event . MEG Nws Memphis, already throwing the word outbreak in mornings afd

Yeah I noticed that too. NWS Memphis is usually conservative. A bit too conservative in my opinion a lot of times. But yeah.

 

[bwalk]

This first weekend of 2022 will need to be watched closely.

A robust severe weather outbreak is setting up for New Year's over a large portion of the southeast U.S. *Especially the Mississippi river valley.
After a mediocre severe weather event occurs on the 29th over eastern LA/MS/AL, a more potent and widespread episode is likely on New Year's.

A dynamic high amplitude upper-level trough will advance northeast a low/mid-level trough. These trough interactions will tap into an intense warm sector, and likely generate a strong 50-60 kt low-level jet. (*SE Texas/SW Louisiana portion may only end up in a slight/enhanced risk)

It's too early to say exactly where the highest risk will set up, but it's safe to say east TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, GA, southern Missouri/Kentucky will be included in some level of risk.

Currently, as modeling stands, the biggest severe potential is leaning toward Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. (This can and will change some)
[Meteorologist Eric Graves WX]
====================

 

[bwalk]

A stout lower level jet will (potentially) be in place Saturday (50-60 kt) that will aid in advecting gulf moisture & raising helicity values.
This will be a key player in this severe setup.

 

[KevinH]

The 06Z GFS-based CIPS SCP, valid 18Z January 2. The SCP parameter for CIPS is far less aggressive than other parameters like CWASP and rarely shows values above 2-4. Here the maximum value is above 6.
View attachment 11255

The highest threat according to THIS has shifted south and East from previous forecasts… uhmmmm

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The highest threat according to THIS has shifted south and East from previous forecasts… uhmmmm

Now that’s January 2 Sunday threat clancy was talking bout. . Spc highlighted area is for Saturday the first…

 

[akt1985]

With several days of heavy rain forecasted between Wednesday and Sunday, does flooding become an issue for much of the South?

 

[JPWX]

Found this interesting from NWS Jackson afternoon discussion concerning Saturday:
Considering the expected environmental parameters,
severe storm develop will be possible mainly Saturday night into
Sunday morning across our whole CWA.

 

[OHWX97]

Photogenic stovepipe tornado in Saudi Arabia, near the city of Ha'il, earlier today.

 

[warneagle]

I guess that's an appropriate city name for severe weather.

 

[gregassagraf]

Damage caused by probable tornadic event this afternoon near the town of Bom Retiro do Sul, Brazil. Photos by Fernando Velho.

 

[buckeye05]

I

Damage caused by probable tornadic event this afternoon near the town of Bom Retiro do Sul, Brazil. Photos by Fernando Velho.

Wow! Despite an unusually quiet 2021, looks like the first significant South American tornado of 2022 has already occurred.

 

[buckeye05]

You know what's even crazier? There was a nearly identical tornado near Al Jawf, Saudi Arabia in December of 2020 (ignore the thumbnail, pretty sure its a screengrab of a landspout from a video taken in Kansas by a chaser named Jim Reed). Same exact thing, with a white, cylindrical stovepipe kicking up red sand. It looks pretty stout too, making me think this isn't a landspout. I have no info on Saudi tornado climatology, but one would think that region would be entirely too hot and dry for significant tornado activity of any kind. Pretty baffling imo.



Here's another similar event that occurred near Maysan, Iraq in 2016. There's another angle which shows there was a second smaller satellite tornado that accompanied the main Maysan tornado.