Severe Weather 2022 (6 Viewers)

The severe weather season for year 2022 will be?

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KevinH

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Seems like New Years/Eve could have some severe potential based on some things I have read from people. Would a threat during that time (covering 2021 and 2022) go HERE or……?
 

Clancy

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The 06Z GFS-based CIPS SCP, valid 18Z January 2. The SCP parameter for CIPS is far less aggressive than other parameters like CWASP and rarely shows values above 2-4. Here the maximum value is above 6.
1640615694244.png
 
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Dewpoint temperatures valid at noon Saturday off the 6z GFS, 00z Canadian, and 00z Euro.
If things come together on this one, I’m afraid Saturday late could be a red day… ceiling appears fairly high for this event . MEG Nws Memphis, already throwing the word outbreak in mornings afd
 
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JPWX

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If things come together on this one, I’m afraid Saturday late could be a red day… ceiling appears fairly high for this event . MEG Nws Memphis, already throwing the word outbreak in mornings afd
Yeah I noticed that too. NWS Memphis is usually conservative. A bit too conservative in my opinion a lot of times. But yeah.
 

bwalk

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This first weekend of 2022 will need to be watched closely.

A robust severe weather outbreak is setting up for New Year's over a large portion of the southeast U.S. *Especially the Mississippi river valley.
After a mediocre severe weather event occurs on the 29th over eastern LA/MS/AL, a more potent and widespread episode is likely on New Year's.

A dynamic high amplitude upper-level trough will advance northeast a low/mid-level trough. These trough interactions will tap into an intense warm sector, and likely generate a strong 50-60 kt low-level jet. (*SE Texas/SW Louisiana portion may only end up in a slight/enhanced risk)

It's too early to say exactly where the highest risk will set up, but it's safe to say east TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, GA, southern Missouri/Kentucky will be included in some level of risk.

Currently, as modeling stands, the biggest severe potential is leaning toward Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. (This can and will change some)
[Meteorologist Eric Graves WX]
====================
 

bwalk

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A stout lower level jet will (potentially) be in place Saturday (50-60 kt) that will aid in advecting gulf moisture & raising helicity values.
This will be a key player in this severe setup.

1640627652605.png
 

JPWX

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Found this interesting from NWS Jackson afternoon discussion concerning Saturday:
Considering the expected environmental parameters,
severe storm develop will be possible mainly Saturday night into

Sunday morning across our whole CWA.
 

buckeye05

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You know what's even crazier? There was a nearly identical tornado near Al Jawf, Saudi Arabia in December of 2020 (ignore the thumbnail, pretty sure its a screengrab of a landspout from a video taken in Kansas by a chaser named Jim Reed). Same exact thing, with a white, cylindrical stovepipe kicking up red sand. It looks pretty stout too, making me think this isn't a landspout. I have no info on Saudi tornado climatology, but one would think that region would be entirely too hot and dry for significant tornado activity of any kind. Pretty baffling imo.


Here's another similar event that occurred near Maysan, Iraq in 2016. There's another angle which shows there was a second smaller satellite tornado that accompanied the main Maysan tornado.
 
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