Severe Weather 2022

[gregassagraf]

Wow!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The pattern coming up in the extended looks loaded with multi day severe thunderstorm threats from west to east.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The continuation of a positive NAO index with the forecast of a negative PNA for an extended time is a teleconnection forecast that largely favors severe weather.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The continuation of a positive NAO index with the forecast of a negative PNA for an extended time is a teleconnection forecast that largely favors severe weather.

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Yes, and we see this reflected not only in the consistency of the operational GFS but also supported by the Euro ensemble as SPC has noted in their 4-8 discussions the last several days.

Details on timing/location/mode/impact ceiling all TBD at this range, of course but the signal is there.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Know reed trimmer is really saying after first week March , severe weather goes bonkers . That’s reed now saying in tweet

 

[pritchlaw]

Reed Timmer predicting weather to go bonkers? You don't say!

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Reed Timmer predicting weather to go bonkers? You don't say!

Yeah, again he's not wrong in that there is general model support, but the time of year in general also supports it, so this isn't exactly groundbreaking information.

 

[MichelleH]

Next Reed will be warning everyone that water is wet.

 

[JPWX]

Reed loves to overhype things a little too much. I mean the pattern overall the next 2 to 3 maybe 4 weeks favors multiple threats of severe weather. Might end up with higher end flash flooding potential down the road as well.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Reed loves to overhype things a little too much. I mean the pattern overall the next 2 to 3 maybe 4 weeks favors multiple threats of severe weather. Might end up with higher end flash flooding potential down the road as well.

I'm not educated enough about severe systems to predict a severe event but it doesn't take a scientist to see that there's might be too much rain accumulated in the coming weeks.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

We here in Wisconsin could certainly use the precip. We're running 20" or more below average on snowfall for the season. Last time we had a winter this dry (although even drier than this) was 2011-'12, which led into a year-long severe drought for not only us but most of the Midwest/Plains.

 

[gregassagraf]

eyes on Cordoba province, Argentina, this afternoon and evening.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Mods @WesL @Lori , I saw where a few of the recent post in this thread from me and CheeselandSkies about a threat late this week was moved into the March 5th-7th severe thread. Can you please move those back into this thread.

On that note, check out the substantial differences and trend in the GFS on the last two model runs. That’s a move towards a more intense and slowed system that would more likely favor a significant severe risk across the Southeast into the mid Atlantic Friday/Saturday.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

On this morning's 12Z GFS, it appears there will be a fairly narrow window of opportunity before the front and associated warm sector push off the Southeast coast. The timing with the warm sector on land is also unfavorable (mainly overnight Friday into Saturday). Not that timing is a total deal-breaker this time of year, but it could be one of the limiting factors for a higher-end event.

If there were to be a higher-end event, I could see it playing out similar to the late February 2016 outbreak. This was another event with a surface low forming close to the Gulf Coast and then hooking sharply northeast, sparing the more traditional parts of "Dixie Alley" (central to northern AL/MS and into TN), but with significant tornadoes in southern Louisiana, the Florida Panhandle, and the mid-Atlantic.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

It's fantasy range again, but this run of the GFS also has another big trough developing in the west and traversing the country around the 18th (06Z run did as well). The model has had its struggles this winter, but it was remarkably consistent on the general timing and placement of this past Saturday's severe threat (although obviously not with crucial details like 3KM CAPE and EHI values).

 

[CheeselandSkies]

New tornado watch out for far SE AL/southern GA/the central and eastern Florida panhandle. Likely tornado ongoing N of Cottondale, FL.

Nasty morning surprise for parts of the Deep South. Welcome to a La Nina March.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

It's fantasy range again, but this run of the GFS also has another big trough developing in the west and traversing the country around the 18th (06Z run did as well). The model has had its struggles this winter, but it was remarkably consistent on the general timing and placement of this past Saturday's severe threat (although obviously not with crucial details like 3KM CAPE and EHI values).

It stayed with this look for a few more runs, but now the timing appears to be changing and the trough amplifies too far east for a solid severe threat in the central CONUS. As of today's 12Z run, there's also a cutoff trough in the Gulf which delays/stunts moisture return. If there were to be a severe threat, it would likely be contained to the far Southeast as with today's system and the upcoming later week one. Still plenty of time for it to trend back, or disappear entirely.

Euro however has a more favorable look, with 500mb southwest flow across parts of the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast on the 17th-18th. It also has the preceding cut-off, but it's further east and weaker with less of an impact on moisture return. Feels like both models have been struggling of late, but the Euro still seems to be the more accurate of the two in general.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Getting good indication with cips… substantial severe risk starting arklatex moving east around 20 th. This month ….

 

[akt1985]

It looks like the next severe weather threat is Friday night/Saturday along the Gulf Coast in some of the same areas hit this morning.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Clancy, there is a dedicated thread for Friday/Saturday’s threat at https://talkweather.com/threads/severe-weather-threat-3-10-3-12-2022.1938/.