Severe Weather 2022

[MattW]

New mesoscale discussion up for East Alabama and West Georgia:

658
ACUS11 KWNS 161620
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161620
GAZ000-ALZ000-161815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022

Areas affected...parts of south-central Alabama and western Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161620Z - 161815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Beneath a cold core upper low over the Southeast, isolated
strong/severe storms may develop through the afternoon with a
primary risk of marginally severe hail.

DISCUSSION...As of 1615z, regional visible and water vapor imagery
showed a compact upper low across western AL and eastern MS. SPC
mesoanalysis and morning RAOBS showed a broad cold pocket aloft (H5
Temps near -20C) associated with the upper low. The cold
temperatures aloft and daytime heating are supporting moderately
steep/steepening lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/Km across much of eastern
AL and western GA. The favorable lapse rates and surface dewpoints
in the upper 50s to low 60s F will continue to support weak
destabilization of the warming airmass through the afternoon.

Ongoing showers and storms in the vicinity of Birmingham, AL are
expected to expand in coverage to the north and east with the
movement of the upper low. Additional storms may also develop within
an evolving cumulus field across west-central GA and southeast AL
later this afternoon. The favorable buoyancy/lapse rates may support
a few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail or
damaging wind gusts. However, deep-layer shear is less favorable (<
30 kts) beneath the upper low, suggesting limited potential for
broader storm organization. While an isolated strong/severe storm is
possible this afternoon, a weather watch is currently unlikely.

..Lyons/Bunting.. 03/16/2022

It doesn't seem like they want to go with a watch just yet, but those storms popping up around Troy, AL look interesting.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

New mesoscale discussion up for East Alabama and West Georgia:

It doesn't seem like they want to go with a watch just yet, but those storms popping up around Troy, AL look interesting.

Here comes the hail.

 

[Equus]

General observation: It's always interesting to me when a forecast sounding with a TOR in the "possible hazard type" box has a more classic-looking vertical wind profile, hodograph, and critical angle than a nearby one which has a "PDS TOR" but might have some visually apparent kinks/veer-backing while the other is "perfect" (winds at each pressure level turn clockwise relative to the one below it). For those more familiar with the model soundings and what all goes into calculating this, what are some possible reasons for this?

*This assumes the thermodynamic environment is generally similar between the two.

For SHARPpy at least, the specifics of what go into hazard type are listed at https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/32339/noaa_32339_DS1.pdf - have also definitely seemed to notice more PDS environments leaning more on instability with only decent hodos; just 200m²s² can potentially trigger it

 

[bwalk]

Here comes the hail.

Really intense rain w/ hail in East Alabama moving E/NE a little after 12 pm. DBZs are pushing 70 in some of these cells.

 

[Derek00]

I swore I would never be 'one of those people' who post things like this, but I have to drive to Atlanta and back on Friday and I'm seeing a few reports of severe weather for the area then. I'm a new dad and our baby will be with us, so naturally I am more anxious about it than I would like to admit. Just thought I would ask you folks here who are much, much more knowledgeable than me on what to possibly expect. I'm sorry for the annoying question!

 

[bjdeming]

I don't know enough about weather to even begin to answer this, other than that it doesn't matter in day-to-day weather. But what, if any, could be effects of a moist stratosphere on longer-term patterns, perhaps including factors affecting severe weather (this is from Hunga Tonga's January 15th massive blast, which also led to a sulfur aerosol layer that will last a few years and probably also warms the stratosphere a bit) ?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

GFS continues to have an active look with multiple additional troughs traversing the CONUS following a brief respite after today's event. Details on timing/location/intensity of any severe threat all TBD, of course.

 

[Fred Gossage]

GFS continues to have an active look with multiple additional troughs traversing the CONUS following a brief respite after today's event. Details on timing/location/intensity of any severe threat all TBD, of course.

There's been a strong signal in the Euro weeklies, Euro ensembles, GFS ensembles, and Canadian ensembles for the first few days of April since early last week. The TNI is spiking high-end positive right now, and this coming period is right after a smaller MJO wave (aside from the big standing wave in the IO) crosses past North America at the end of the month. Y'all strap in...

 

[DetectiveWX]

Here's the temp composite for the explosive -ENSO April-Junes particularly in the Midwest and Dixie, and it's quite troublesome... SE ridge/western trough setting up a potentially vicious battleground pattern heading into the heart of spring.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

00Z GFS has a yesterday redux (in terms of location and general setup) in a week's time, plus the "Wednesday bump." Forecast sounding from a little east/northeast of Jackson, MS:

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

00Z GFS has a yesterday redux (in terms of location and general setup) in a week's time, plus the "Wednesday bump." Forecast sounding from a little east/northeast of Jackson, MS:

Euro also has a system bout same timeframe u talking about needs be watched. And day 10 0z euro. Showing a vigorous trough digging sw setting up a potent system , interesting times coming up if you love severe weather . If you don’t, need be keeping up with weather details . Because like Fred said beginning April looks very ominous.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

System still there on the 06Z GFS, but the environment looks a little less volatile probably due to the sheer amount of convection that the model breaks out. Also looks like this system may have the same issue as the current one WRT meridional front-parallel flow restricting an otherwise dangerous tornado parameter space from being fully realized. Details like this will bounce around quite a bit run to run at this range, of course.

@Fred Gossage , is there something in the large-scale synoptics or teleconnections that promotes the bolded vs. troughs that are a little less amped, with good upper diffluence without the winds in the left exit region being due south or even SSE?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Times of interest look like middle of next week and then the first week of April. The operational runs and ensembles aren't as fine tune to the severity and likelihood of what we had with the previous event at this range, but will be watching closely.

 

[Fred Gossage]

System still there on the 06Z GFS, but the environment looks a little less volatile probably due to the sheer amount of convection that the model breaks out. Also looks like this system may have the same issue as the current one WRT meridional front-parallel flow restricting an otherwise dangerous tornado parameter space from being fully realized. Details like this will bounce around quite a bit run to run at this range, of course.

@Fred Gossage , is there something in the large-scale synoptics or teleconnections that promotes the bolded vs. troughs that are a little less amped, with good upper diffluence without the winds in the left exit region being due south or even SSE?

You must have been looking at the lead primer system around March 30th. The one around April 2nd-3rd has had the ensemble signal since early last week, and it looked like this in the 6z GFS

And like this in the Euro ensembles

 

[Richardjacks]

You must have been looking at the lead primer system around March 30th. The one around April 2nd-3rd has had the ensemble signal since early last week, and it looked like this in the 6z GFS
View attachment 12822
And like this in the Euro ensembles
View attachment 12823

Oh wow, that's concerning .

 

[DetectiveWX]

Oh wow, that's concerning .

And on Super '74 48th anniversary....

 

[ARCC]

You must have been looking at the lead primer system around March 30th. The one around April 2nd-3rd has had the ensemble signal since early last week, and it looked like this in the 6z GFS
View attachment 12822
And like this in the Euro ensembles
View attachment 12823

That control. Wow.

 

[atrainguy]

You must have been looking at the lead primer system around March 30th. The one around April 2nd-3rd has had the ensemble signal since early last week, and it looked like this in the 6z GFS
View attachment 12822
And like this in the Euro ensembles
View attachment 12823

I was wondering - do the darkest colors in both indicate where both models think severe weather might be? In that case, GFS is suggesting southern Tornado Alley, Ozarks, and Illinois as being the areas of potential threat, and the Euro is saying the same about E Texas and southern Mississippi Valley? I appreciate any info, I'm quite ignorant when it comes to maps like these.

 

[Fred Gossage]

I was wondering - do the darkest colors in both indicate where both models think severe weather might be? In that case, GFS is suggesting southern Tornado Alley, Ozarks, and Illinois as being the areas of potential threat, and the Euro is saying the same about E Texas and southern Mississippi Valley? I appreciate any info, I'm quite ignorant when it comes to maps like these.

Those aren't severe weather threat maps. Those are model/ensemble images showing the 500mb vorticity, pressure (heights above ground of 500mb pressure), and wind. This just shows the general mid to upper level pattern.

 

[atrainguy]

Those aren't severe weather threat maps. Those are model/ensemble images showing the 500mb wind, pressure (heights above ground of 500mb pressure), and wind. This just shows the general mid to upper level pattern.

Ahh, my bad then, lol. Thanks so much for clarifying!