Severe Weather 2022

[MattPetrulli]

Would obviously like to see more moisture return but hello

 

[Austin Dawg]

There's been a strong signal in the Euro weeklies, Euro ensembles, GFS ensembles, and Canadian ensembles for the first few days of April since early last week. The TNI is spiking high-end positive right now, and this coming period is right after a smaller MJO wave (aside from the big standing wave in the IO) crosses past North America at the end of the month. Y'all strap in...

I was hoping it was a passing wiggle in the GFS when I saw it earlier. I hope this is not a harbinger of the rest of the spring.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Would obviously like to see more moisture return but hello
View attachment 12839
View attachment 12840

Just insane … wow

 

[Casuarina Head]

I was hoping it was a passing wiggle in the GFS when I saw it earlier. I hope this is not a harbinger of the rest of the spring.

Most of the events over the past year have failed to meet expectations, so this one may not be very different from the rest, -ENSO/-PDO notwithstanding.

 

[keithGA]

Random question...at what minimum radar beam height do you consider an area to be in a "radar hole"?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Random question...at what minimum radar beam height do you consider an area to be in a "radar hole"?

Probably above 6,500' or so...beyond that, it gets hard to discern the low-level details of a supercell.

 

[MattPetrulli]

12z GFS and Euro kinda starting to converge on something in Arkansas/MS/LA for Wednesday

 

[Clancy]

CIPS has this at the end of their D1-8 probs. Also included the longer-range extended guidance through 168 and 240 hours, which shows a pretty active-looking period.
(This is valid for 00Z April 1)

 

[Fred Gossage]

12z GFS and Euro kinda starting to converge on something in Arkansas/MS/LA for Wednesday
View attachment 12841
View attachment 12842

And then MS/TN/AL/maybe GA Wednesday sunset into Thursday morning.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

There is an apparent threat for next Tuesday-Thursday with a fair amount of similarities to the upper and low level wind fields and vorticity like the system we just had Monday-Wednesday; however this threat is still without the severity and consistency of the parameter set that was modeled for the recent event. Let's see if we can trend stronger with the shear and moisture return.

 

[ARCC]

That look at day ten on the Euro is definitely a problem.

 

[Austin Dawg]

And then MS/TN/AL/maybe GA Wednesday sunset into Thursday morning.

Including the last severe weather event and what you've been looking at and future models do you think we're starting to see a possible pattern this season of multiple days connected in the upcoming severe weather events?

 

[Weatherphreak]

Brad Travis has brought up next Wednesday a couple times now for the Huntsville/North Alabama area. I feel like these systems tend to slow down closer to the event. I’d rather have a mid morning event than an overnight threat.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Areas in for Days 5/6. Day 5 could be the first substantial Plains chase day of the year, followed by this rather ominous tidbit for Day 6 (the infamous Wednesday):

Guidance currently suggests the low- and mid-level winds will
strengthen on D6/Wednesday, resulting in very impressive wind
profiles. This strengthening of the flow, coupled with the
negatively tilted character to the shortwave and ample low-level
moisture, suggests the potential for numerous severe storms exists.
As a result, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later
outlooks if the current trends within the guidance persist.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Areas in for Days 5/6. Day 5 could be the first substantial Plains chase day of the year, followed by this rather ominous tidbit for Day 6 (the infamous Wednesday):

Sounds like higher probs maybe needed later outlooks … 0z euro is nasty for ark. West Tn most ms. And western Alabama .

 

[MichelleH]

Someone needs to make a thread for Tuesday/Wednesday. You know it will not be me.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Someone needs to make a thread for Tuesday/Wednesday. You know it will not be me.

Please don’t Michelle lol…

 

[Casuarina Head]

There is an apparent threat for next Tuesday-Thursday with a fair amount of similarities to the upper and low level wind fields and vorticity like the system we just had Monday-Wednesday; however this threat is still without the severity and consistency of the parameter set that was modeled for the recent event. Let's see if we can trend stronger with the shear and moisture return.

The high-amplitude, linear forcing will likely cut down on higher-end tornado (discrete) probabilities. Despite a near-record-breaking -PDO combined with a moderate or stronger -ENSO, most of the systems this winter have not been the kind of broad, low-amplitude troughs that one would normally expect during such a favourable large-scale background (climatic) state. I have alluded to this elsewhere on this forum. One would expect more widespread, frequent, bigger late-winter/early-spring events during a robust -PDO/Niña, at least to date. However, all this could change as we enter springtime.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The high-amplitude, linear forcing will likely cut down on higher-end tornado (discrete) probabilities. Despite a near-record-breaking -PDO combined with a moderate or stronger -ENSO, most of the systems this winter have not been the kind of broad, low-amplitude troughs that one would normally expect during such a favourable large-scale background (climatic) state. I have alluded to this elsewhere on this forum. One would expect more widespread, frequent, bigger late-winter/early-spring events during a robust -PDO/Niña, at least to date. However, all this could change as we enter springtime.

3/5 was. Looked great at 500mb with that subtle little negatively tilted shortwave nosing into the warm sector just ahead of the surface low. I should have known that was enough to make it a chase day despite surface obs of like 62/57.

 

[MichelleH]

The high-amplitude, linear forcing will likely cut down on higher-end tornado (discrete) probabilities. Despite a near-record-breaking -PDO combined with a moderate or stronger -ENSO, most of the systems this winter have not been the kind of broad, low-amplitude troughs that one would normally expect during such a favourable large-scale background (climatic) state. I have alluded to this elsewhere on this forum. One would expect more widespread, frequent, bigger late-winter/early-spring events during a robust -PDO/Niña, at least to date. However, all this could change as we enter springtime.

And Fred gave you his response to that.