Severe Weather 2022

[tennessee storm chaser]

Big boy systems are picked up early and models have been fairly significant with this for a while , interesting times this week as we track this system next week .

 

[Clancy]

Spann floated the risk for severe weather next week on his socials. Quite far out to make a mention but speaks to what we've seen with model agreement so far.

Also here's the outlook areas for D6 and D7, attached below.

 

[MichelleH]

The fact that Spann - who is known to be conservative when it comes to severe wx ahead of the event - is already alerting people to this makes me nervous. Also, BMX already has a 1 for tornadoes for Thursday.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The fact that Spann - who is known to be conservative when it comes to severe wx ahead of the event - is already alerting people to this makes me nervous. Also, BMX already has a 1 for tornadoes for Thursday.

View attachment 12181

This has Super Tuesday vibes Michelle to me … mind same evolution slp track model s showing now

 

[mattdanielwx]

We've been mentioning it for a few days at WBRC. Synoptically looks like a decent setup for severe weather. Still too early for specifics of course.

 

[Clancy]

From BMX's AFD.

A pattern flip occurs next week as the West Coast ridge is
replaced by a trough, and a ridge strengthens over the western
Caribbean up into the Bahamas. Have continued to incorporate the
warmer NBM percentiles for highs beginning on Tuesday. The
synoptic pattern for Thursday checks a lot of boxes for severe
weather across the Deep South and Mid-South with a low amplitude
southern stream trough and deepening surface low lifting
northeastward across the Ozarks, with an associated mid-level
speed max on the shortwave`s southeast flank. A strong 60 to 70 kt
LLJ will also bring 65F dew points northward. I suspect models
are underdoing the forecast CAPE values in this setup. This system
is several days out and there is some uncertainty regarding how
the southern stream trough interacts with the northern stream
along with an upstream wave, but will introduce a low confidence
tornado mention into the HWO.

 

[maroonedinhsv]

From Huntsville's AFD:

The system is still several days away but there may be the potential for severe weather late Thursday/early Friday based on the current timing.

 

[Mike S]

Brandon Spinner put word out this morning as well.

So we have Huntsville and Birmingham mets along with both weather offices on board. Anyone want to start a thread? MichelleH and Richard Jacks are banned from starting though

 

[MichelleH]

Brandon Spinner put word out this morning as well.

So we have Huntsville and Birmingham mets along with both weather offices on board. Anyone want to start a thread? MichelleH and Richard Jacks are banned from starting though

Oh, don't worry! Never again!

 

[gregassagraf]

“Cone Sur” alley might be waking up: some severe weather with parameters very favorable for supercell development are set for next Monday! Santa Catarina’s civil defense department is already gearing up and are guiding the population to take correct precautions. I’ll be keeping an eye out to see how things develop. source

 

[buckeye05]

“Cone Sur” alley might be waking up: some severe weather with parameters very favorable for supercell development are set for next Monday! Santa Catarina’s civil defense department is already gearing up and are guiding the population to take correct precautions. I’ll be keeping an eye out to see how things develop. source

Edit: lol never mind, just realized what day it is. I need some sleep. Curious to see how this pans out though.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The weather pattern has changed substantially and more severe weather threats appear ahead in the coming weeks. Wednesday (24th)/Thursday (25th) time frame and then the week after that are already look like systems tracking the center part of the nation with return flow out ahead. Details will be ironed out with time, but does look active.

 

[gregassagraf]

Edit: lol never mind, just realized what day it is. I need some sleep. Curious to see how this pans out though.

Well, yesterday the city of Joinville in Santa Cantarina experienced some “gorilla hail”.



Today I would be more concerned with the area around the city of Palmital and Assis in the state of São Paulo: CAPE approaching 3000 at around 6pm, with Lifted index of -7. Not a lot of shear though. Also the pressure will be relatively high at around 1008 hPa.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Well, yesterday the city of Joinville in Santa Cantarina experienced some “gorilla hail”.
View attachment 12218


Today I would be more concerned with the area around the city of Palmital and Assis in the state of São Paulo: CAPE approaching 3000 at around 6pm, with Lifted index of -7. Not a lot of shear though. Also the pressure will be relatively high at around 1008 hPa.

What usually happens get that kind instability the shear goes lacking … pattern looks active moving forward for Dixie and most lower ms. Valley

 

[Casuarina Head]

What usually happens get that kind instability the shear goes lacking … pattern looks active moving forward for Dixie and most lower ms. Valley

Aside from the historic December outbreak, this winter has proven rather tame in the TOR-outbreak department for a strong -PDO/-ENSO setup.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Looks like next week there could be something around the Monday Tuesday timeframe and another system later in the week before things cool off again to end February.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Aside from the historic December outbreak, this winter has proven rather tame in the TOR-outbreak department for a strong -PDO/-ENSO setup.

Does anyone have any theories as to why this winter, on balance, has been relatively tame tornado-wise despite -PDO/-ENSO?

 

[gregassagraf]

Does anyone have any theories as to why this winter, on balance, has been relatively tame tornado-wise despite -PDO/-ENSO?

Well… people are saying that the low lapse rate of yesterday’s setup has damped the tornado potential. Maybe this is part of a larger trend? But IDK!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Looks like next week there could be something around the Monday Tuesday timeframe and another system later in the week before things cool off again to end February.

Yes, there are severe weather threats on the map in the Southeast US for next Tuesday and Thursday. The week after also has severe potential.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Yes, there are severe weather threats on the map in the Southeast US for next Tuesday and Thursday. The week after also has severe potential.

I think I am seeing what you're talking about on the Euro, GFS, and somewhat the NAM but I want to know if you too are seeing a two day event on the 22nd and 23rd? I see there are other storm systems on the GFS after that but I know if you are trying to interpret anything longer than 1-2 days with the weather it would better to use witchcraft to figure things out or one of these.