Severe Weather 2022

[JBishopwx]

For 2/3/22

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Slight with 5% TOR expanded into much of AL on later morning updates. MD 120 out says watch likely coming for the AOI. Gonna have to check out the Weather Xtreme video in a bit...

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Here's one seasonal tornado forecast for this year that I found recently:



Essentially, based on current conditions and analogs, there's a possibility that this could be an overall slow year for tornadoes (particularly on the Great Plains), though there's always the possibility that things could change later on (so I would personally still recommend always keeping an eye on the weather regardless).

Plains will be slow this spring. It will be active east there due to the ridge building later in the center part country

 

[Richardjacks]

This is reminding me another cool season event not that long ago....

 

[CheeselandSkies]

FYI today's event now has its own thread:

Severe WX - Severe Weather - Feb 3, 2022

Tornado Watch out for parts of AL and MS.

talkweather.com

 

[Weatherphreak]

GFS starting to show a decent looking storm system around the 18th for the lower Mississippi, Gulf Coast areas. Will be interesting to see how it evolves over the next week.

Edit to add the Daytona 500 is looking a little rainy for the 3rd year in a row.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

Given the increasing likelihood that the MJO constructively interferes with La Niña, an atmospheric response typical of La Niña is expected across the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and North America during the latter half of February.

The ground hog that lives behind the office where I work covered up its hole during the last warm days of December just before the extended cold and wintery weather. I saw today that the hole is back open.

 

[MattW]

What does that mean for severe weather around here?

 

[JPWX]

The 18z GFS, 12z Euro, and 12z Canadian valid going into late next week. Severe weather/heavy rain threat.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Suprise in the lack of talk and discussion about System late next week .

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Suprise in the lack of talk and discussion about System late next week .

Need to see a few more days of run-to-run/model-to-model consistency to see if the look sticks. Not much to say at this point other than there is potential for something there...too far out for details on timing/location/mode.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Need to see a few more days of run-to-run/model-to-model consistency to see if the look sticks. Not much to say at this point other than there is potential for something there...too far out for details on timing/location/mode.

Agree but coming out a boring pattern we been in catches your eyes still

 

[Taylor Campbell]

That’s a powerhouse low level jet.

 

[Richardjacks]

That’s a powerhouse low level jet.

View attachment 12170

Woah

 

[Taylor Campbell]

GFS valid 2-17 at 3pm central

 

[Taylor Campbell]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

That does look like one potent shortwave forecast to move through the base of that broad longwave trough around a week from now. Saving grace on the GFS (for now) might be marginal instability, but there were questions about that at this range with the 12/10 setup, too.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

That does look like one potent shortwave forecast to move through the base of that broad longwave trough around a week from now. Saving grace on the GFS (for now) might be marginal instability, but there were questions about that at this range with the 12/10 setup, too.

Gfs is basically worthless this far with instability parameters … main thing here getting good agreement with the big picture showing potent short wave amped trough … the euro has cape vals pushing 1000 close lower Ohio valley

 

[CheeselandSkies]

SPC already introduced areas for Days 6 and 7...gutsy call, but it speaks to the model agreement and consistency observed thus far.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

SPC already introduced areas for Days 6 and 7...gutsy call, but it speaks to the model agreement and consistency observed thus far.

Super Tuesday 2 05 08 is a analog being used ….