Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/10-3/12, 2022

[Taylor Campbell]

A discussion thread for the severe threat on March 10th-12th, 2022.

The Storm Prediction Center added an enhanced risk with 10% tornado probabilities in the newest day 2.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The overnight Friday into Saturday setup supports EF2+ type tornadoes.

 

[Clancy]

Enhanced risk is up for tomorrow. 10% TOR and 30% wind.

 

[KevinH]

Why does this thread not show up in the list of threads in “General Weather Discission“? I have to click on the link in the email notification about the thread to see it.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Why does this thread not show up in the list of threads in “General Weather Discission“? I have to click on the link in the email notification about the thread to see it.

Hmmmm...it's there in the list for me.

 

[KevinH]

Hmmmm...it's there in the list for me.

Oh I see it, it’s not at the top of the page

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Nocturnal setup with rapidly deepening low/rapidly strengthening LLJ. Very bad things can happen with these.

 

[Clancy]

The 3km NAM keeps wanting to drag some UH over my neck of the woods. HRRR is also showing UH streaks north of the core threat area. Dunno if it's worth paying attention to at all, but thought I'd mention it.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The 3km NAM keeps wanting to drag some UH over my neck of the woods. HRRR is also showing UH streaks north of the core threat area. Dunno if it's worth paying attention to at all, but thought I'd mention it.

@Clancy, yes that’s worth paying attention. That’s a significant weather event where that updraft helicity streak traverses along with the surface low.

 

[Clancy]

@Clancy, yes that’s worth paying attention. That’s a significant weather event where that updraft helicity streak traverses along with the surface low.

Gotcha, thanks. Checked FFC's AFD and they mention the tornado risk in some detail. Only limiting factor for Georgia mentioned is a potential rain mass, but its impact would erode with time regardless.

Convective guidance shows that some isolated convection could
happen within the warm sector over central GA during the day
Friday, and given that CAPE values will be within the 500-1000
J/kg range, SRH values will be 100-200 m2/s2, and 50+kt of speed
shear will be overspreading the area, both a wind and tornado
hazard will exist with some transient supercells and bowing
segments possible. The one hang-up could be higher coverage of
rainfall than expected, which could slow the lift of the warm
front and keep any convection more elevated. Later into the night
and early morning hours, warm front should move well north, and
ongoing convection ahead of the approaching cold front will likely
become increasingly more surface based. Substantial wind shear
aloft, decent low level shear, and surface based instability will
lead to some bowing line segments and potential QLCS features as
this convection pushes through out ahead of the cold front. This
will bring both a severe wind gust threat alongside the
possibility of a few tornadoes, especially in central Georgia,
which has seen a small segment of central Georgia upgraded to an
enhanced risk for Day 2.

 

[Clancy]

Threat areas were nudged slightly southwards today for the D1, but the overall threats remain the same.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Latest HRRR suggests far SE LA/srn MS (near/south of Hattiesburg) and into SW AL could be one of the hot spots this evening. That's before the storms even get close to the current Enhanced risk area.

Edit: 16Z HRRR is similar.

 

[Argus]

the Wedge hasn’t left our area yet, still 53 degrees I think the risk area will shift further south

 

[buckeye05]

Man, talk about a bust. Not even a single storm report on SPC. I’ve seen setups underperform, but it’s rare for literally nothing to happen at all. I’m sure it’s a sigh of relief for folks living in that area.

 

[TH2002]

Man, talk about a bust. Not even a single storm report on SPC. I’ve seen setups underperform, but it’s rare for literally nothing to happen at all. I’m sure it’s a sigh of relief for folks living in that area.

The main threat is expected to be nocturnal. If something does happen tonight, I will have to ask

"What is it with Florida and nighttime intense tornadoes?"

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Man, talk about a bust. Not even a single storm report on SPC. I’ve seen setups underperform, but it’s rare for literally nothing to happen at all. I’m sure it’s a sigh of relief for folks living in that area.

What @TH2002 said; the main show with this setup was never expected to coincide with peak heating. It should begin in a couple hours and continue through 12Z (tomorrow morning local time) with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes in and near the Enhanced Risk area.

Edit: As I typed, first tornado warning goes out. St. Charles/Lafourche/Jefferson, LA. Couple of apparent supercells over the Gulf have special marine warnings with them for tornadic waterspout potential. These should move onshore the Florida panhandle/perhaps extreme southern MS/AL in a couple hours as depicted by the HRRR.

 

[Jetstream]

Mseo discussion, watch coming

 

[akt1985]

Tornado watch up now

 

[Clancy]

This watch has 50/40 TOR probs.

 

[buckeye05]

What @TH2002 said; the main show with this setup was never expected to coincide with peak heating. It should begin in a couple hours and continue through 12Z (tomorrow morning local time) with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes in and near the Enhanced Risk area.

Edit: As I typed, first tornado warning goes out. St. Charles/Lafourche/Jefferson, LA. Couple of apparent supercells over the Gulf have special marine warnings with them for tornadic waterspout potential. These should move onshore the Florida panhandle/perhaps extreme southern MS/AL in a couple hours as depicted by the HRRR.

Ah I see. If it wasn’t evident already, I haven’t been paying close attention to this one. With that said, the cell approaching Salem, FL right now definitely is showing some strong rotation