JPWX
Member
Basically we're gonna have a severe weather threat or at least a risk during the next 2 to 5 weeks.
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ShockerBasically we're gonna have a severe weather threat or at least a risk during the next 2 to 5 weeks.
Yeah exactly! LOL!Shocker
Not surprised… I always say “Alabama is the Oklahoma of the south” Out of 46 confirmed U.S. tornadoes in 2022 to date, 16 have been in Alabama including all 9 in February. Next are Kentucky with 10, and Florida with 8.
I feel like that’s pretty normal. January-March mainly Dixie alley/Gulf Coast events shifting west and north April-June. Obviously south is still in play through May.Out of 46 confirmed U.S. tornadoes in 2022 to date, 16 have been in Alabama including all 9 in February. Next are Kentucky with 10, and Florida with 8.
100 percent agree with u .. always come here to get some good severe talk before spring season . We are getting some threats , but been so quiet . Maybe as the events get little worse things pick up.It's very interesting how quiet it is on here especially given a heavy rain and severe weather threat this week.
It's fantasyland of course, but the last few runs of the GFS have had a big trough in the west late in the run with some instability (greater values than the model portrayed at medium-long range with the last few events, including today's) developing inland over the southeastern states.
By Sat/D7, models indicate increased low-level moisture return over
the southern Plains as a large upper trough develops over the
western CONUS. The ECMWF members show a strong midlevel jet emerging
into the central/southern Plains at this time, and indications are
that this wave may eject rather quickly northeast. Dewpoints up to
60 F may spread as far north as eastern OK as a low deepens over the
upper MS Valley. While some degree of severe threat may develop
along the trailing dryline or cold front, instability is forecast to
be relatively weak and will also depend on heating.
For Sun/D8, shortwave ridging is forecast over the Plains as a
secondary wave (still within the large-scale mean trough) moves
across the Four Corners states. A boundary would likely be in place
across parts of the southern Plains in the wake of the Sat/D7
system, and increasing southerly flow late Sun/D8 into Mon/D9 could
potentially result in severe potential as moisture returns north.
The second wave, if the ECMWF ensemble verifies may yield greater
severe potential as boundary layer moisture will have had a longer
time to increase across TX and toward the lower MS Valley (mid to
upper 60s F). If models remain consistent, one or more severe areas
may eventually be added in later outlooks as predictability
warrants.
..Jewell.. 02/27/2022