Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 2/21-2/22, 2022

[Austin Dawg]

Yes, there are severe weather threats on the map in the Southeast US for next Tuesday and Thursday. The week after also has severe potential.

I think I am seeing what you're talking about on the Euro, GFS, and somewhat the NAM but I want to know if you too are seeing a two day event on the 22nd and 23rd? I see there are other storm systems on the GFS after that but I know if you are trying to interpret anything longer than 1-2 days with the weather it would better to use witchcraft to figure things out or one of these.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Outside of our December event we have had several fizzles and a relatively quiet spring in 2021. That has led this much to be quiet until the day before the possible event so I figure you'll see a lot more discussion about it tomorrow.

 

[JBishopwx]

Today:



Tuesday:

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Mods, please pull in post from the main Severe Thread pertaining to today and tomorrow’s threat and pin to top.

There is a 5% tornado risk both days, and a good chance for supercells with an increased likelihood to produce severe weather. Thank you.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Simulated reflectivity products and parameters have been suggestive of a healthy string of supercells forming in MS tomorrow afternoon going into Alabama.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Simulated reflectivity products and parameters have been suggestive of a healthy string of supercells forming in MS tomorrow afternoon going into Alabama.

Yeah, if that look holds up, might need another Enhanced risk for parts of the area.

 

[WesL]

Getting ready for a little rumble here in NW Arkansas... then we have mentions of ICE??! err noo.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Yeah, if that look holds up, might need another Enhanced risk for parts of the area.

Agree 100 percent. . Wouldn’t be to big suprise see the next update day 2 1130 go enhanced today , based on latest model runs

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Agree 100 percent. . Wouldn’t be to big suprise see the next update day 2 1130 go enhanced today , based on latest model runs

Well no enhanced risk, but they bifurcated the 5% area.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

On the south end threat tomorrow the I-22 corridor looks like a hot spot.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Huntsville discussion this morning mentioned supercells forming in central Mississippi and tracking NE through the afternoon. Might sneak up on some folks.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Pretty big hail falling out of these Texas storms tonight. half dollar size on one of them.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

There’s a tornado watch out for extreme northeast Texas, eastern OK, and western to central AR.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[akt1985]

There is a tornado warning out for Mayfield, Kentucky this morning until 7:30 AM. Rotation doesn’t look all that impressive but I’m sure residents are on edge.

 

[OHWX97]

There is a tornado warning out for Mayfield, Kentucky this morning until 7:30 AM. Rotation doesn’t look all that impressive but I’m sure residents are on edge.

That same storm may have dropped a brief tornado earlier near Cayce, KY, another community devastated on December 10th.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Things don't seem to be lining up really well today; SPC doesn't sound impressed.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

 

[Weatherphreak]

Huntsville saying its going to take at least low to mid 70s to break the cap over North Alabama. Probably will be your typical areas with the greatest threat like Hamilton, Guin down to Tuscaloosa etc. I bet Huntsville just gets a bunch of rain and maybe some gusty winds unless some of these clouds move out.

 

[Taylor Campbell]